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Sun Jul 14 7:15 pm

IRL Week 12 of 17 - Regular Season

Josef Newgarden What If?

The Josef Newgarden What If table presents probabilities of different IRL Driver Championship finishes depended upon how Josef Newgarden completes future races. These races include either the next race or all 6 remaining races. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results.

Josef Newgarden What If?

Next Race - Iowa 300 at Iowa Speedway

  Resultant
Points
Finishing Spot
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Win Next Race
(1st Place)
488 70% 26% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 434 52% 38% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
21st Place 443 33% 46% 17% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^


Remaining Races

Finish for
the 6
Remaining
Races
Resultant
Points
Finishing Spot
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
1 758 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 680 94% 6% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 650 71% 29% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 632 48% 50% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 620 32% 62% 6% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 608 18% 69% 13% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 596 8% 63% 28% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 584 3% 50% 42% 5% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 566 <1% 25% 56% 19% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 554 <1% 11% 53% 35% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 548 <1% 7% 48% 44% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
12 542 <1% 4% 41% 53% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 536 <1% 2% 34% 60% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
14 530 <1% 1% 26% 67% 7% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
15 524 <1% <1% 19% 70% 10% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
16 518 <1% <1% 13% 72% 15% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
17 512 <1% <1% 8% 69% 21% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^
18 506 <1% <1% 5% 63% 30% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^
19 500 <1% <1% 3% 54% 37% 5% <1% <1% ^ ^
20 494 <1% <1% 1% 43% 44% 11% 1% <1% ^ ^
21 488 <1% <1% 1% 33% 49% 17% 2% <1% <1% ^
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot