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NASCAR Week 12 of 26 - Regular Season

AJ Allmendinger What If?

The What If tables presents the probability that AJ Allmendinger wins different qualifing Chase spots depended upon how he finishes future races. These races include either the next race or all 15 remaining races of the regular season (no Chase races). All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results.


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AJ Allmendinger What If?

Next Race - Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway

  Resultant
Points		 Resultant
Wins		 Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
Win Next Race
(1st Place)		 169 1 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
Current Standings 122 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
Lose Next Race
(43rd Place)		 123 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%


Remaining Races

Finish for
the 15
Remaining
Races		 Resultant
Points		 Resultant
Wins		 Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
1 827 15 < 1% 4% 25% 40% 24% 7% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
4 737 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4% 14% 28% 29% < 1% 1% 24%
5 722 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% 11% 24% < 1% 2% 60%
6 707 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 7% < 1% 2% 89%
10 647 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
15 557 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
20 482 0 X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
25 407 0 X X X X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% > 99%
30 332 0 X X X X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% > 99%
35 257 0 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
40 182 0 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
43 137 0 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot

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