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NASCAR Week 26 of 26 - Regular Season

Jeff Burton What If?

The What If tables presents the probability that Jeff Burton wins different qualifing Chase spots depended upon how he finishes future races. These races include either the next race or all 1 remaining races of the regular season (no Chase races). All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results.


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Jeff Burton What If?

Next Race - Richmond 400 at Richmond International Raceway

  Resultant
Points		 Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
Win Next Race
(1st Place)		 3451 X 4% 27% 46% 22% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 3261 X < 1% 2% 10% 21% 25% 19% 14% 8% 1% < 1% ^ ^
Lose Next Race
(43rd Place)		 3295 X X X X X < 1% 1% 14% 63% 22% 1% ^ ^


Remaining Races

Finish for
the 1
Remaining
Races		 Resultant
Points		 Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
1 3451 X 3% 28% 46% 21% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 3421 X < 1% 4% 23% 44% 26% 3% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 3400 X < 1% < 1% 7% 29% 43% 20% 2% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^
15 3381 X X < 1% 1% 9% 32% 39% 17% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 3366 X X < 1% < 1% 2% 17% 41% 32% 7% ^ ^ ^ ^
25 3349 X X < 1% < 1% < 1% 6% 29% 44% 21% ^ ^ ^ ^
30 3334 X X X < 1% < 1% 1% 14% 42% 40% 3% ^ ^ ^
35 3319 X X X X < 1% < 1% 6% 32% 55% 7% ^ ^ ^
40 3304 X X X X X < 1% 2% 22% 61% 15% < 1% ^ ^
43 3295 X X X X X < 1% 1% 15% 62% 22% < 1% ^ ^
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot

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