The What If tables presents the probability that Martin Truex Jr. wins different qualifing spots for the next NASCAR playoff round depended upon how he finishes future races. These races include either the next race or all 15 remaining races of the current round. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results.
| Resultant Wins |
Resultant Points |
Qualifing Playoff Spot | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17+ | |||
| Win Next Race (1st Place) |
3 | 491 | 43% | 37% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 431 | 19% | 26% | 24% | 19% | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 40th Place | 2 | 432 | 15% | 25% | 24% | 21% | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Finish for the 15 Remaining Races |
Resultant Wins |
Resultant Points |
Qualifing Playoff Spot | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17+ | |||
| 1 | 17 | 1331 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 | 2 | 1226 | <1% | 10% | 37% | 38% | 13% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 | 2 | 1181 | 1% | 11% | 37% | 37% | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 | 2 | 1136 | 1% | 12% | 36% | 37% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 | 2 | 1091 | 1% | 11% | 37% | 37% | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 | 2 | 1046 | 1% | 9% | 35% | 39% | 15% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 | 2 | 1001 | <1% | 7% | 32% | 42% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 8 | 2 | 956 | <1% | 5% | 29% | 43% | 19% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 | 2 | 911 | <1% | 4% | 26% | 44% | 22% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 | 2 | 836 | <1% | 2% | 20% | 41% | 28% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 | 2 | 821 | <1% | 2% | 18% | 41% | 30% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 | 2 | 806 | <1% | 2% | 16% | 40% | 31% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 | 2 | 791 | <1% | 2% | 15% | 38% | 33% | 11% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 | 2 | 776 | <1% | 1% | 13% | 37% | 34% | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 | 2 | 761 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 34% | 36% | 15% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 16 | 2 | 746 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 31% | 37% | 18% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 17 | 2 | 731 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 28% | 38% | 21% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 18 | 2 | 716 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 26% | 39% | 23% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 19 | 2 | 701 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 22% | 38% | 26% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 20 | 2 | 686 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 20% | 37% | 30% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 21 | 2 | 671 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 17% | 36% | 31% | 11% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 22 | 2 | 656 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 35% | 33% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 23 | 2 | 641 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 32% | 34% | 16% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 24 | 2 | 626 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 30% | 36% | 19% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 25 | 2 | 611 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 28% | 35% | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 26 | 2 | 596 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 7% | 24% | 36% | 24% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 27 | 2 | 581 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 21% | 36% | 26% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 28 | 2 | 566 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 19% | 35% | 28% | 12% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 29 | 2 | 551 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 18% | 33% | 29% | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30 | 2 | 536 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 16% | 33% | 31% | 14% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 31 | 2 | 521 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 31% | 15% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32 | 2 | 506 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 32% | 32% | 15% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33 | 2 | 491 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 13% | 31% | 33% | 16% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 34 | 2 | 476 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 30% | 32% | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 35 | 2 | 461 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 13% | 30% | 33% | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 36 | 2 | 446 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 13% | 31% | 33% | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 37 | 2 | 446 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 13% | 31% | 32% | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 38 | 2 | 446 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 13% | 30% | 33% | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 39 | 2 | 446 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 13% | 30% | 33% | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 40 | 2 | 446 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 12% | 31% | 34% | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |