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NASCAR Week 10 of 10 of the Chase

NASCAR Chase Probabilities

Is your favorite driver going to win the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Probabilities table provides two probabilities. The probability that a driver participates in the Chase and the probability that a driver wins the Chase. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Probabilities

Driver Points Points
Ahead/Behind
12th Place		 Chase Probabilities
Chase Winner Chase Participate
Jimmie Johnson 6492 - 95% 100%
Mark Martin 6384 -108 5% 100%
Jeff Gordon 6323 -169 X 100%
Kurt Busch 6281 -211 X 100%
Tony Stewart 6207 -285 X 100%
Juan Montoya 6203 -289 X 100%
Greg Biffle 6171 -321 X 100%
Denny Hamlin 6140 -352 X 100%
Ryan Newman 6081 -411 X 100%
Kasey Kahne 6016 -476 X 100%
Carl Edwards 5972 -520 X 100%
Brian Vickers 5826 -666 X 100%
 
Kyle Busch 4310 -2182 X X
Matt Kenseth 4265 -2227 X X
Clint Bowyer 4224 -2268 X X
David Reutimann 4103 -2389 X X
Jeff Burton 3847 -2645 X X
Marcos Ambrose 3767 -2725 X X
Joey Logano 3700 -2792 X X
Casey Mears 3653 -2839 X X
Kevin Harvick 3626 -2866 X X
Jamie McMurray 3495 -2997 X X
Martin Truex Jr. 3365 -3127 X X
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 3343 -3149 X X
A.J. Allmendinger 3342 -3150 X X
Elliott Sadler 3310 -3182 X X
David Ragan 3191 -3301 X X
Reed Sorenson 3104 -3388 X X
Sam Hornish Jr. 3103 -3389 X X
Bobby Labonte 3058 -3434 X X
David Stremme 2919 -3573 X X
Paul Menard 2894 -3598 X X
Michael Waltrip 2761 -3731 X X
Robby Gordon 2653 -3839 X X
Scott Speed 2608 -3884 X X
John Andretti 2533 -3959 X X
David Gilliland 1852 -4640 X X
Brad Keselowski 1440 -5052 X X
Regan Smith 1373 -5119 X X
Joe Nemechek 1342 -5150 X X
Dave Blaney 1204 -5288 X X
Max Papis 1047 -5445 X X
Bill Elliott 980 -5512 X X
Mike Bliss 577 -5915 X X
Tony Raines 528 -5964 X X
Aric Almirola 527 -5965 X X
Scott Riggs 448 -6044 X X
Erik Darnell 417 -6075 X X
Patrick Carpentier 351 -6141 X X
Travis Kvapil 326 -6166 X X
Sterling Marlin 316 -6176 X X
Terry Labonte 301 -6191 X X
Michael McDowell 292 -6200 X X
Jeremy Mayfield 288 -6204 X X
Mike Skinner 200 -6292 X X
Ron Fellows 158 -6334 X X
Boris Said 152 -6340 X X
Todd Bodine 123 -6369 X X
Robert Richardson Jr. 109 -6383 X X
Andy Lally 82 -6410 X X
Mike Wallace 80 -6412 X X
Scott Wimmer 76 -6416 X X
Dexter Bean 55 -6437 X X
Brandon Ash 40 -6452 X X
P.J. Jones 40 -6452 X X
Derrike Cope 37 -6455 X X
Tony Ave 34 -6458 X X
Brian Simo 0 -6492 X X
Chris Cook 0 -6492 X X
David Starr 0 -6492 X X
Dennis Setzer 0 -6492 X X
Eric McClure 0 -6492 X X
Geoffrey Bodine 0 -6492 X X
J.J. Yeley 0 -6492 X X
Josh Wise 0 -6492 X X
Kelly Bires 0 -6492 X X
Kevin Conway 0 -6492 X X
Kevin Hamlin 0 -6492 X X
Kirk Shelmerdine 0 -6492 X X
Mike Garvey 0 -6492 X X
Norm Benning 0 -6492 X X
Ted Christopher 0 -6492 X X
Tom Hubert 0 -6492 X X
Trevor Boys 0 -6492 X X
Carl Long -200 -6692 X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the Chase
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny

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