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NASCAR Chase Probabilities

Is your favorite driver going to win the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Probabilities table provides two probabilities. The probability that a driver participates in the Chase and the probability that a driver wins the Chase. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Probabilities

Driver Points Points
Ahead/Behind
12th Place		 Chase Probabilities
Chase Winner Chase Participate
Jimmie Johnson 6684 - 100% ^
Carl Edwards 6615 -69 X 100%
Greg Biffle 6467 -217 X 100%
Kevin Harvick 6408 -276 X 100%
Clint Bowyer 6381 -303 X 100%
Jeff Burton 6335 -349 X 100%
Jeff Gordon 6316 -368 X 100%
Denny Hamlin 6214 -470 X 100%
Tony Stewart 6202 -482 X 100%
Kyle Busch 6186 -498 X 100%
Matt Kenseth 6184 -500 X 100%
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6127 -557 X 100%
 
David Ragan 4299 -2385 X X
Kasey Kahne 4085 -2599 X X
Martin Truex Jr. 3839 -2845 X X
Jamie McMurray 3809 -2875 X X
Ryan Newman 3735 -2949 X X
Kurt Busch 3635 -3049 X X
Brian Vickers 3580 -3104 X X
Casey Mears 3527 -3157 X X
Bobby Labonte 3448 -3236 X X
David Reutimann 3397 -3287 X X
Travis Kvapil 3384 -3300 X X
Elliott Sadler 3364 -3320 X X
Juan Montoya 3329 -3355 X X
Paul Menard 3151 -3533 X X
David Gilliland 3064 -3620 X X
Mark Martin 3022 -3662 X X
Michael Waltrip 2889 -3795 X X
Dave Blaney 2851 -3833 X X
Scott Riggs 2797 -3887 X X
Reed Sorenson 2795 -3889 X X
Robby Gordon 2770 -3914 X X
Regan Smith 2672 -4012 X X
Sam Hornish Jr. 2523 -4161 X X
A.J. Allmendinger 2436 -4248 X X
Joe Nemechek 1989 -4695 X X
Patrick Carpentier 1794 -4890 X X
Bill Elliott 1528 -5156 X X
Michael McDowell 1466 -5218 X X
J.J. Yeley 1263 -5421 X X
Aric Almirola 1075 -5609 X X
Ken Schrader 1040 -5644 X X
Kyle Petty 879 -5805 X X
Marcos Ambrose 844 -5840 X X
Terry Labonte 811 -5873 X X
Tony Raines 800 -5884 X X
Mike Skinner 734 -5950 X X
Dario Franchitti 606 -6078 X X
Jeremy Mayfield 578 -6106 X X
Sterling Marlin 482 -6202 X X
Chad McCumbee 396 -6288 X X
Johnny Sauter 387 -6297 X X
Dale Jarrett 367 -6317 X X
Scott Speed 366 -6318 X X
Brad Keselowski 200 -6484 X X
Ron Fellows 200 -6484 X X
Boris Said 194 -6490 X X
Jason Leffler 192 -6492 X X
Jon Wood 183 -6501 X X
Kenny Wallace 166 -6518 X X
John Andretti 149 -6535 X X
Mike Wallace 143 -6541 X X
Joey Logano 113 -6571 X X
Max Papis 92 -6592 X X
David Stremme 84 -6600 X X
P.J. Jones 52 -6632 X X
Brad Coleman 49 -6635 X X
Scott Pruett 49 -6635 X X
Mike Bliss 46 -6638 X X
Brian Simo 34 -6650 X X
Brandon Ash 0 -6684 X X
Bryan Clauson 0 -6684 X X
Burney Lamar 0 -6684 X X
Carl Long 0 -6684 X X
Chad Chaffin 0 -6684 X X
Derrike Cope 0 -6684 X X
Eric McClure 0 -6684 X X
Jacques Villeneuve 0 -6684 X X
Jeff Green 0 -6684 X X
Johnny Benson 0 -6684 X X
Scott Wimmer 0 -6684 X X
Stanton Barrett 0 -6684 X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the Chase
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny

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