PlayoffStatus.com

Fri Oct 20 4:30 am

NASCAR Contender Round - Week 3 of 3

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the NASCAR playoffs? The NASCAR Playoff Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different playoff rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities
Driver Wins Points Pts Playoff
Points
PO
Pts
Points
Ahead 9th or
Behind 8th Place
Playoff Probabilities
Monster Energy Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Martin Truex Jr. 1 3120 64 53 28% 92% 100% ^ ^
Brad Keselowski 1 3101 26 34 15% 59% 100% ^ ^
Kyle Larson 0 3096 34 29 23% 73% 98% 100% ^
Kevin Harvick 0 3089 17 22 8% 40% 93% 100% ^
Denny Hamlin 0 3088 13 21 9% 39% 92% 100% ^
Chase Elliott 0 3087 6 20 5% 26% 90% 100% ^
Ryan Blaney 0 3076 9 9 1% 7% 51% 100% ^
Jimmie Johnson 0 3074 17 7 2% 15% 60% 100% ^
 
Kyle Busch 0 3067 41 -7 8% 37% 55% 100% ^
Matt Kenseth 0 3066 5 -8 1% 9% 44% 100% ^
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 3052 10 -22 <1% 2% 11% 100% ^
Jamie McMurray 0 3045 3 -29 <1% 1% 6% 100% ^
Kasey Kahne 0 2104 5 - X X X X 100%
Ryan Newman 0 2103 5 - X X X X 100%
Austin Dillon 0 2099 5 - X X X X 100%
Kurt Busch 0 2089 5 - X X X X 100%
Joey Logano 0 794 1 - X X X X X
Clint Bowyer 0 775 1 - X X X X X
Erik Jones 0 749 0 - X X X X X
Daniel Suarez 0 708 1 - X X X X X
Trevor Bayne 0 584 0 - X X X X X
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 571 0 - X X X X X
Paul Menard 0 532 0 - X X X X X
Ty Dillon 0 515 0 - X X X X X
Chris Buescher 0 484 0 - X X X X X
AJ Allmendinger 0 467 0 - X X X X X
Michael McDowell 0 461 0 - X X X X X
Danica Patrick 0 457 0 - X X X X X
David Ragan 0 387 0 - X X X X X
Aric Almirola 0 386 0 - X X X X X
Matt DiBenedetto 0 318 0 - X X X X X
Landon Cassill 0 316 0 - X X X X X
Cole Whitt 0 279 0 - X X X X X
Corey Lajoie 0 202 0 - X X X X X
Gray Gaulding 0 148 0 - X X X X X
Reed Sorenson 0 125 0 - X X X X X
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 116 0 - X X X X X
Derrike Cope 0 36 0 - X X X X X
Michael Waltrip 0 29 0 - X X X X X
Billy Johnson 0 15 0 - X X X X X
Boris Said 0 15 0 - Cody Ware 6 - D.J. Kennington 6
- 0 Gary Klutt 0 6 - Alon Day 5 - Stephen Leicht
5 0 - 0 Kevin O'Connell 4 - Tommy Regan 3 -
BJ McLeod 0 0 0 - Brendan Gaughan 0 - Brett Moffitt 0
- 0 Carl Long 0 0 - Darrell Wallace Jr. 0 - Elliott Sadler
0 0 - 0 JJ Yeley 0 - Joey Gase 0 -
Josh Bilicki 0 0 0 - Justin Marks 0 - Mark Thompson 0
- 0 Ray Black Jr. 0 0 - Regan Smith 0 - Ross Chastain
0 0 - 0 Ryan Sieg 0 - Timmy Hill 0 -
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  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the playoffs
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny