NASCAR Chase Probabilities

Is your favorite driver going to win the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Probabilities table provides two probabilities. The probability that a driver participates in the Chase and the probability that a driver wins the Chase. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

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NASCAR Chase Probabilities

Driver	Points	Points Ahead 11th or Behind 10th Place	Wins	Chase Probabilities
Driver	Points	Points Ahead 11th or Behind 10th Place	Wins	Chase Winner	Chase Participate
Jimmie Johnson	423	108	2	55%	> 99%
Carl Edwards	379	64	1	14%	> 99%
Matt Kenseth	364	49	3	10%	> 99%
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	359	44	0	5%	99%
Clint Bowyer	349	34	0	2%	95%
Kasey Kahne	326	11	1	2%	92%
Brad Keselowski	326	11	0	5%	92%
Kyle Busch	325	10	2	6%	99%
Aric Almirola	317	2	0	< 1%	52%
Kevin Harvick	315	0	1	< 1%	77%
Paul Menard	315	0	0	< 1%	48%
Greg Biffle	311	-4	0	< 1%	50%

Jeff Gordon	311	-4	0	< 1%	59%
Martin Truex Jr.	301	-14	0	< 1%	48%
Jamie McMurray	295	-20	0	< 1%	20%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	282	-33	0	< 1%	4%
Ryan Newman	276	-39	0	< 1%	12%
Kurt Busch	262	-53	0	< 1%	10%
Joey Logano	259	-56	0	< 1%	18%
Jeff Burton	258	-57	0	< 1%	3%
Tony Stewart	253	-62	0	< 1%	1%
Juan Pablo Montoya	238	-77	0	< 1%	2%
Marcos Ambrose	235	-80	0	< 1%	1%
Mark Martin	226	-89	0	< 1%	5%
Casey Mears	210	-105	0	< 1%	< 1%
David Ragan	197	-118	1	< 1%	< 1%
Denny Hamlin	197	-118	0	< 1%	14%
Danica Patrick	196	-119	0	< 1%	< 1%
Bobby Labonte	195	-120	0	< 1%	< 1%
Dave Blaney	190	-125	0	< 1%	< 1%
David Gilliland	188	-127	0	< 1%	< 1%
J.J. Yeley	157	-158	0	< 1%	< 1%
David Stremme	150	-165	0	< 1%	< 1%
David Reutimann	149	-166	0	< 1%	< 1%
Landon Cassill	130	-185	0	< 1%	< 1%
Travis Kvapil	127	-188	0	< 1%	< 1%
AJ Allmendinger	122	-193	0	< 1%	< 1%
Scott Speed	74	-241	0	< 1%	< 1%
Michael McDowell	72	-243	0	< 1%	< 1%
Michael Waltrip	63	-252	0	< 1%	< 1%
Terry Labonte	52	-263	0	< 1%	< 1%
Timmy Hill	45	-270	0	< 1%	< 1%
Ken Schrader	29	-286	0	< 1%	< 1%
Scott Riggs	6	-309	0	< 1%	< 1%
Brian Keselowski	4	-311	0	< 1%	< 1%
Austin Dillon	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%
Brian Vickers	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%
Elliott Sadler	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%
Joe Nemechek	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%
Josh Wise	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%
Mike Bliss	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%
Regan Smith	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%
Sam Hornish Jr.	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%
Trevor Bayne	0	-315	0	< 1%	< 1%

Notes
^ means the driver will finish better
X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the Chase
50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny

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NASCAR Week 12 of 26 - Regular Season

NASCAR Chase Probabilities

NASCAR Chase Probabilities