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Fri Jan 13 11:45 pm

NASCAR Season Complete

NASCAR Chase Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the chase competition? The NASCAR Chase Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different chase rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Chase Probabilities
Driver Wins Points Pts Points
Behind 1st Place
Chase Probabilities
Sprint Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Jimmie Johnson 0 5040 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
Joey Logano 0 5037 - X 100% ^ ^ ^
Kyle Busch 0 5035 - X 100% ^ ^ ^
Carl Edwards 0 5007 - X 100% ^ ^ ^
 
Matt Kenseth 0 2330 - X X 100% ^ ^
Denny Hamlin 0 2320 - X X 100% ^ ^
Kurt Busch 0 2296 - X X 100% ^ ^
Kevin Harvick 0 2289 - X X 100% ^ ^
Chase Elliott 0 2285 - X X X 100% ^
Martin Truex Jr. 0 2271 - X X X 100% ^
Brad Keselowski 0 2267 - X X X 100% ^
Austin Dillon 0 2223 - X X X 100% ^
Kyle Larson 0 2288 - X X X X 100%
Jamie McMurray 0 2231 - X X X X 100%
Tony Stewart 0 2211 - X X X X 100%
Chris Buescher 0 2169 - X X X X 100%
Ryan Newman 0 920 - X X X X X
Kasey Kahne 0 898 - X X X X X
AJ Allmendinger 0 840 - X X X X X
Ryan Blaney 0 812 - X X X X X
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 772 - X X X X X
Trevor Bayne 0 763 - X X X X X
Greg Biffle 0 691 - X X X X X
Danica Patrick 0 689 - X X X X X
Paul Menard 0 688 - X X X X X
Aric Almirola 0 638 - X X X X X
Clint Bowyer 0 628 - X X X X X
Casey Mears 0 556 - X X X X X
Landon Cassill 0 530 - X X X X X
Michael McDowell 0 510 - X X X X X
Brian Scott 0 481 - X X X X X
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 461 - X X X X X
David Ragan 0 455 - X X X X X
Regan Smith 0 452 - X X X X X
Matt DiBenedetto 0 386 - X X X X X
Michael Annett 0 328 - X X X X X
Cole Whitt 0 276 - X X X X X
Jeff Gordon 0 218 - X X X X X
Reed Sorenson 0 198 - X X X X X
Josh Wise 0 168 - X X X X X
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 159 - X X X X X
Brian Vickers 0 86 - X X X X X
Bobby Labonte 0 61 - X X X X X
David Gilliland 0 46 - X X X X X
Michael Waltrip 0 42 - X X X X X
Boris Said 0 17 - X X X X X
Patrick Carpentier 0 11 - X X X X X
Alex Kennedy 0 5 - X X X X X
Eddie MacDonald 0 5 - X X X X X
Robert Richardson Jr. 0 3 - X X X X X
Alex Bowman 0 0 - X X X X X
D.J. Kennington 0 0 - X X X X X
Dylan Lupton 0 0 - X X X X X
Gray Gaulding 0 0 - X X X X X
Jeb Burton 0 0 - X X X X X
Joey Gase 0 0 - X X X X X
Justin Allgaier 0 0 - X X X X X
Ryan Ellis 0 0 - X X X X X
Ryan Reed 0 0 - X X X X X
Timmy Hill 0 0 - X X X X X
Ty Dillon 0 0 - X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the Chase
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny