PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Mar 10 7:30 pm

NASCAR Regular Season - Week 5 of 26

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the NASCAR playoffs? The NASCAR Playoff Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different playoff rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities
Driver Wins W Points Pts Playoff
Points
PO
Pts
Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Playoff Probabilities
Monster Energy Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Kyle Busch 1 177 8 85 8% 32% 56% 77% 96%
Joey Logano 1 171 6 79 7% 28% 52% 75% 97%
Denny Hamlin 1 165 5 73 6% 26% 49% 72% 96%
Brad Keselowski 1 133 5 41 6% 23% 46% 68% 90%
Kevin Harvick 0 168 2 76 4% 15% 28% 38% 48%
Kyle Larson 0 138 1 46 4% 13% 24% 35% 44%
Aric Almirola 0 134 0 42 3% 11% 22% 34% 44%
Martin Truex Jr. 0 134 0 42 3% 11% 22% 34% 44%
Kurt Busch 0 126 0 34 2% 11% 22% 34% 44%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 123 0 31 3% 11% 22% 32% 43%
Clint Bowyer 0 118 0 26 3% 10% 21% 31% 41%
Ryan Blaney 0 113 2 21 3% 12% 22% 32% 42%
Chase Elliott 0 108 0 16 3% 10% 20% 30% 41%
Erik Jones 0 106 0 14 3% 10% 20% 30% 41%
Jimmie Johnson 0 98 0 6 2% 9% 19% 29% 39%
Alex Bowman 0 94 0 2 2% 9% 19% 28% 39%
 
Ryan Newman 0 92 0 -2 2% 9% 18% 28% 39%
William Byron 0 82 0 -12 2% 9% 18% 28% 38%
Paul Menard 0 81 0 -13 2% 9% 18% 27% 36%
Daniel Suarez 0 77 0 -17 2% 8% 17% 26% 35%
Ty Dillon 0 76 0 -18 2% 8% 17% 27% 36%
Austin Dillon 0 76 0 -18 2% 8% 17% 26% 35%
Chris Buescher 0 73 0 -21 2% 8% 17% 26% 35%
Matt DiBenedetto 0 57 0 -37 2% 7% 15% 23% 32%
Daniel Hemric 0 53 0 -41 2% 7% 15% 23% 32%
David Ragan 0 49 0 -45 2% 7% 15% 23% 31%
Corey Lajoie 0 48 0 -46 2% 7% 14% 22% 30%
Ryan Preece 0 47 0 -47 2% 7% 14% 22% 30%
Bubba Wallace 0 42 0 -52 2% 6% 13% 21% 29%
Michael McDowell 0 41 0 -53 2% 7% 14% 22% 30%
Ross Chastain 0 33 0 -61 1% 6% 13% 20% 27%
Matt Tifft 0 30 0 -64 2% 6% 12% 19% 27%
Parker Kligerman 0 29 0 -65 1% 6% 13% 20% 26%
Landon Cassill 0 25 0 -69 1% 6% 12% 18% 25%
BJ McLeod 0 23 0 -71 1% 5% 11% 18% 25%
Jamie McMurray 0 19 0 -75 1% 5% 11% 17% 23%
Brendan Gaughan 0 14 0 -80 1% 5% 10% 16% 22%
Cody Ware 0 12 0 -82 1% 5% 11% 17% 23%
Tyler Reddick 0 10 0 -84 1% 5% 10% 17% 23%
Casey Mears 0 1 0 -93 1% 5% 9% 15% 20%
Reed Sorenson 0 1 0 -93 1% 5% 9% 14% 20%
Garrett Smithley 0 1 0 -93 1% 4% 9% 15% 20%
Ryan Truex 0 0 0 -94 1% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Bayley Currey 0 0 0 -94 1% 4% 9% 14% 20%
Quin Houff 0 0 0 -94 1% 4% 9% 14% 20%
Joey Gase 0 0 0 - X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the playoffs
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny