PlayoffStatus.com

Wed Jul 11 12:30 am

NASCAR Regular Season - Week 19 of 26

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the NASCAR playoffs? The NASCAR Playoff Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different playoff rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities
Driver Wins W Points Pts Playoff
Points
PO
Pts
Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Playoff Probabilities
Monster Energy Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Kyle Busch 5 749 30 342 33% 90% 98% >99% 100%
Kevin Harvick 4 692 27 285 27% 82% 96% 99% 100%
Martin Truex Jr. 3 629 18 222 19% 70% 92% 98% 100%
Clint Bowyer 2 594 10 187 7% 41% 81% 95% 100%
Joey Logano 1 618 7 211 5% 35% 78% 93% 100%
Austin Dillon 1 347 5 -60 <1% 1% 13% 49% >99%
Timothy Peters 1 0 0 - X X X X X
Brad Keselowski 0 596 4 189 1% 14% 51% 80% >99%
Kurt Busch 0 566 2 159 1% 10% 43% 76% >99%
Kyle Larson 0 544 0 137 3% 17% 50% 78% 99%
Denny Hamlin 0 538 2 131 2% 17% 54% 81% 99%
Aric Almirola 0 503 1 96 <1% 3% 31% 70% 97%
Ryan Blaney 0 496 4 89 <1% 4% 22% 52% 87%
Jimmie Johnson 0 461 0 54 <1% 2% 16% 44% 76%
Erik Jones 0 448 5 41 1% 6% 28% 52% 74%
Chase Elliott 0 444 0 37 1% 5% 26% 53% 77%
 
Alex Bowman 0 426 0 19 <1% 1% 10% 29% 50%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 407 2 -19 <1% <1% 2% 9% 20%
Paul Menard 0 371 1 -55 <1% <1% 2% 8% 15%
Ryan Newman 0 332 0 -94 <1% <1% 1% 6% 15%
Daniel Suarez 0 318 0 -108 <1% <1% 2% 5% 12%
William Byron 0 318 0 -108 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
Jamie McMurray 0 316 0 -110 <1% <1% 1% 5% 13%
AJ Allmendinger 0 307 1 -119 <1% <1% 1% 4% 11%
Chris Buescher 0 293 0 -133 <1% <1% 1% 5% 14%
Bubba Wallace 0 292 0 -134 <1% <1% <1% 3% 10%
Kasey Kahne 0 269 0 -157 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
David Ragan 0 263 0 -163 <1% <1% <1% 2% 6%
Michael McDowell 0 260 0 -166 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
Ty Dillon 0 244 0 -182 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
Matt DiBenedetto 0 214 0 -212 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
Trevor Bayne 0 185 0 -241 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
Gray Gaulding 0 113 0 -313 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Landon Cassill 0 89 0 -337 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Cole Whitt 0 87 0 -339 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
D.J. Kennington 0 82 0 -344 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 61 0 -365 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Corey Lajoie 0 58 0 -368 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Brendan Gaughan 0 49 0 -377 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Matt Kenseth 0 49 0 -377 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Reed Sorenson 0 36 0 -390 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Harrison Rhodes 0 23 0 -403 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Mark Thompson 0 15 0 -411 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Chris Cook 0 6 0 -420 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Tomy Drissi 0 5 0 -421 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Derrike Cope 0 4 0 -422 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kyle Weatherman 0 4 0 -422 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Danica Patrick 0 2 0 -424 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Cody Ware 0 1 0 -425 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
BJ McLeod 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Chad Finchum 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Cole Custer 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Daniel Hemric 0 0 0 - X X X X X
David Gilliland 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Garrett Smithley 0 0 0 - X X X X X
JJ Yeley 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Joey Gase 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Justin Marks 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Parker Kligerman 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Ray Black Jr. 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Ross Chastain 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Timmy Hill 0 0 0 - X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the playoffs
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny