PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Sep 23 12:45 am

NASCAR Challenger Round - Week 3 of 3

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the NASCAR playoffs? The NASCAR Playoff Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different playoff rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities
Driver Wins Points Pts Playoff
Points
PO
Pts
Points
Ahead 13th or
Behind 12th Place
Playoff Probabilities
Monster Energy Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Kyle Busch 1 2125 55 69 34% 93% 99% 100% ^
Brad Keselowski 1 2111 25 55 6% 38% 81% 100% ^
Martin Truex Jr. 0 2141 38 85 19% 73% 95% 100% ^
Kevin Harvick 0 2112 49 56 25% 84% 97% 100% ^
Joey Logano 0 2081 14 25 4% 26% 74% 98% 100%
Aric Almirola 0 2079 1 23 <1% 5% 41% 97% 100%
Kyle Larson 0 2073 5 17 3% 19% 57% 90% 100%
Kurt Busch 0 2071 14 15 2% 21% 67% 90% 100%
Chase Elliott 0 2066 8 10 2% 14% 49% 80% 100%
Austin Dillon 0 2066 5 10 <1% 2% 19% 75% 100%
Alex Bowman 0 2061 0 5 <1% 1% 16% 64% 100%
Ryan Blaney 0 2060 7 4 1% 6% 32% 65% 100%
 
Clint Bowyer 0 2056 15 -4 2% 13% 42% 62% 100%
Jimmie Johnson 0 2054 0 -6 <1% 1% 11% 42% 100%
Erik Jones 0 2039 5 -21 <1% 3% 14% 25% 100%
Denny Hamlin 0 2031 3 -29 <1% 1% 6% 11% 100%
Ryan Newman 0 583 0 - X X X X X
Paul Menard 0 566 1 - X X X X X
Daniel Suarez 0 560 0 - X X X X X
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 552 2 - X X X X X
Jamie McMurray 0 518 0 - X X X X X
William Byron 0 483 0 - X X X X X
Chris Buescher 0 445 0 - X X X X X
AJ Allmendinger 0 423 1 - X X X X X
David Ragan 0 405 0 - X X X X X
Michael McDowell 0 402 0 - X X X X X
Bubba Wallace 0 369 0 - X X X X X
Kasey Kahne 0 358 0 - X X X X X
Ty Dillon 0 354 0 - X X X X X
Matt DiBenedetto 0 284 0 - X X X X X
Trevor Bayne 0 238 0 - X X X X X
Matt Kenseth 0 176 1 - X X X X X
Corey Lajoie 0 125 0 - X X X X X
Landon Cassill 0 123 0 - X X X X X
Gray Gaulding 0 119 0 - X X X X X
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 91 0 - X X X X X
Cole Whitt 0 90 0 - X X X X X
D.J. Kennington 0 82 0 - X X X X X
Reed Sorenson 0 60 0 - X X X X X
Brendan Gaughan 0 49 0 - X X X X X
Regan Smith 0 48 0 - X X X X X
Kyle Weatherman 0 27 0 - X X X X X
Harrison Rhodes 0 23 0 - X X X X X
Blake Jones 0 21 0 - X X X X X
Mark Thompson 0 15 0 - X X X X X
Derrike Cope 0 8 0 - X X X X X
Chris Cook 0 6 0 - X X X X X
Tomy Drissi 0 5 0 - X X X X X
Danica Patrick 0 2 0 - X X X X X
Alon Day 0 1 0 - X X X X X
Cody Ware 0 1 0 - X X X X X
BJ McLeod 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Chad Finchum 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Cole Custer 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Daniel Hemric 0 0 0 - X X X X X
David Gilliland 0 0 0 - X X X X X
David Starr 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Garrett Smithley 0 0 0 - X X X X X
JJ Yeley 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Jesse Little 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Joey Gase 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Josh Bilicki 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Justin Marks 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Parker Kligerman 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Ray Black Jr. 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Ross Chastain 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Spencer Gallagher 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Timmy Hill 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Timothy Peters 0 0 0 - X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the playoffs
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny