PlayoffStatus.com

Thu Jun 6 12:15 am

NASCAR Regular Season - Week 15 of 26

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the NASCAR playoffs? The NASCAR Playoff Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different playoff rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities
Driver Wins W Points Pts Playoff
Points
PO
Pts
Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Playoff Probabilities
Monster Energy Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Kyle Busch 4 568 25 226 38% 92% 99% >99% 100%
Brad Keselowski 3 509 19 167 11% 53% 85% 96% >99%
Martin Truex Jr. 3 452 16 110 9% 43% 77% 93% >99%
Denny Hamlin 2 465 11 123 8% 40% 79% 94% >99%
Joey Logano 1 564 10 222 18% 67% 93% 98% >99%
Chase Elliott 1 511 7 169 7% 41% 82% 96% >99%
Kevin Harvick 0 500 3 158 2% 16% 55% 83% >99%
Kurt Busch 0 437 0 95 3% 17% 59% 86% >99%
Ryan Blaney 0 406 2 64 <1% 3% 16% 43% 79%
Clint Bowyer 0 402 0 60 2% 11% 43% 74% 96%
Alex Bowman 0 395 0 53 1% 5% 23% 54% 85%
Aric Almirola 0 393 0 51 <1% 2% 21% 57% 87%
Daniel Suarez 0 368 0 26 <1% 1% 13% 41% 70%
William Byron 0 361 0 19 <1% <1% 6% 25% 52%
Erik Jones 0 343 0 1 1% 5% 18% 42% 67%
Jimmie Johnson 0 342 0 0 <1% 1% 9% 29% 51%
 
Kyle Larson 0 342 3 0 <1% 1% 7% 21% 41%
Ryan Newman 0 332 0 -10 <1% <1% 3% 14% 28%
Paul Menard 0 310 0 -32 <1% <1% 1% 6% 13%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 308 0 -34 <1% <1% 2% 8% 18%
Austin Dillon 0 285 0 -57 <1% <1% 1% 4% 11%
Chris Buescher 0 282 0 -60 <1% <1% 1% 5% 15%
Ty Dillon 0 250 2 -92 <1% <1% <1% 3% 10%
Daniel Hemric 0 205 0 -137 <1% <1% <1% 2% 9%
Ryan Preece 0 201 0 -141 <1% <1% <1% 4% 16%
Matt DiBenedetto 0 188 0 -154 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
David Ragan 0 173 0 -169 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
Bubba Wallace 0 161 0 -181 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
Corey Lajoie 0 156 0 -186 <1% <1% <1% 1% 6%
Michael McDowell 0 151 0 -191 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8%
Matt Tifft 0 123 0 -219 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Landon Cassill 0 62 0 -280 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Reed Sorenson 0 46 0 -296 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Quin Houff 0 36 0 -306 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Ross Chastain 0 33 0 -309 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Parker Kligerman 0 29 0 -313 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
BJ McLeod 0 23 0 -319 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Jamie McMurray 0 19 0 -323 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Cody Ware 0 18 0 -324 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Brendan Gaughan 0 14 0 -328 <1% 1% 8% 20% 29%
Tyler Reddick 0 10 0 -332 <1% 1% 4% 15% 26%
Stanton Barrett 0 2 0 -340 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Casey Mears 0 1 0 -341 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Garrett Smithley 0 1 0 -341 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Bayley Currey 0 0 0 - X X X X X
D.J. Kennington 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Gray Gaulding 0 0 0 - X X X X X
J.J. Yeley 0 0 0 -342 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
JJ Yeley 0 0 0 -342 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Jeb Burton 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Joey Gase 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Justin Haley 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Ryan Truex 0 0 0 -342 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Timmy Hill 0 0 0 - X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the playoffs
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny