PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Aug 20 1:15 am

NASCAR Regular Season - Week 25 of 26

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the NASCAR playoffs? The NASCAR Playoff Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different playoff rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities
Driver Wins W Points Pts Playoff
Points
PO
Pts
Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Playoff Probabilities
Monster Energy Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Martin Truex Jr. 4 951 35 309 26% 86% 97% 99% 100%
Kyle Larson 3 845 18 203 21% 65% 88% 97% 100%
Jimmie Johnson 3 628 16 -14 2% 13% 46% 77% 100%
Kyle Busch 2 850 20 208 13% 58% 86% 96% 100%
Brad Keselowski 2 728 14 86 12% 44% 75% 91% 100%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2 528 10 -114 1% 9% 37% 71% 100%
Kevin Harvick 1 824 8 182 9% 41% 75% 92% 100%
Denny Hamlin 1 753 6 111 6% 28% 65% 88% 100%
Ryan Blaney 1 623 8 -19 1% 5% 22% 56% 100%
Kurt Busch 1 586 5 -56 2% 9% 37% 70% 100%
Ryan Newman 1 574 5 -68 1% 8% 32% 67% 100%
Kasey Kahne 1 451 5 -191 <1% 1% 11% 41% 100%
Austin Dillon 1 437 5 -205 <1% 1% 10% 40% 100%
Chase Elliott 0 711 2 69 2% 13% 43% 69% 89%
Matt Kenseth 0 703 3 61 2% 9% 32% 58% 79%
Jamie McMurray 0 700 0 58 1% 6% 28% 56% 77%
 
Clint Bowyer 0 642 1 -58 <1% 2% 5% 9% 11%
Erik Jones 0 599 0 -101 <1% <1% 2% 4% 6%
Joey Logano 0 583 1 -117 <1% 1% 4% 8% 10%
Daniel Suarez 0 537 1 -163 <1% <1% 2% 4% 6%
Trevor Bayne 0 470 0 -230 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 416 0 -284 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
Paul Menard 0 408 0 -292 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Ty Dillon 0 395 0 -305 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Chris Buescher 0 387 0 -313 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
AJ Allmendinger 0 381 0 -319 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
Michael McDowell 0 378 0 -322 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Danica Patrick 0 352 0 -348 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
David Ragan 0 303 0 -397 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Aric Almirola 0 268 0 -432 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
Matt DiBenedetto 0 264 0 -436 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Cole Whitt 0 241 0 -459 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Landon Cassill 0 241 0 -459 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Corey Lajoie 0 162 0 -538 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Gray Gaulding 0 111 0 - X X X X X
Reed Sorenson 0 96 0 - X X X X X
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 93 0 - X X X X X
Derrike Cope 0 30 0 - X X X X X
Michael Waltrip 0 29 0 - X X X X X
Billy Johnson 0 15 0 - X X X X X
Boris Said 0 15 0 - Gary Klutt 6 - Alon Day 5
- 0 Stephen Leicht 0 5 - Cody Ware 4 - Kevin O'Connell
4 0 - 0 Tommy Regan 3 - D.J. Kennington 2 -
BJ McLeod 0 0 0 - Brendan Gaughan 0 - Brett Moffitt 0
- 0 Carl Long 0 0 - Darrell Wallace Jr. 0 - Elliott Sadler
0 0 - 0 JJ Yeley 0 - Joey Gase 0 -
Josh Bilicki 0 0 0 - Regan Smith 0 - Ross Chastain 0
- 0 Ryan Sieg 0 0 - Timmy Hill 0 - ??
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  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the playoffs
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny