PlayoffStatus.com

Wed Jun 21 1:30 am

NASCAR Regular Season - Week 16 of 26

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the NASCAR playoffs? The NASCAR Playoff Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different playoff rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities
Driver Wins W Points Pts Playoff
Points
PO
Pts
Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Playoff Probabilities
Monster Energy Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Jimmie Johnson 3 449 15 58 6% 32% 69% 90% >99%
Kyle Larson 2 640 13 249 28% 83% 96% 99% 100%
Martin Truex Jr. 2 635 20 244 19% 77% 95% 99% 100%
Brad Keselowski 2 476 12 85 18% 55% 81% 94% >99%
Ryan Blaney 1 376 8 -15 1% 4% 18% 50% >99%
Kurt Busch 1 359 5 -32 2% 10% 38% 72% >99%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1 354 5 -37 2% 12% 43% 76% >99%
Ryan Newman 1 344 5 -47 1% 5% 26% 63% >99%
Austin Dillon 1 297 5 -94 <1% 2% 14% 48% >99%
Kyle Busch 0 510 4 119 5% 26% 58% 78% 89%
Kevin Harvick 0 508 3 117 5% 26% 60% 79% 89%
Chase Elliott 0 478 2 87 4% 18% 47% 67% 80%
Jamie McMurray 0 450 0 59 2% 10% 33% 52% 66%
Denny Hamlin 0 430 1 39 1% 4% 20% 36% 49%
Joey Logano 0 398 1 7 5% 20% 42% 57% 65%
Matt Kenseth 0 398 1 7 <1% 3% 11% 24% 35%
 
Clint Bowyer 0 391 0 -7 <1% 3% 12% 25% 35%
Erik Jones 0 346 0 -52 <1% <1% 3% 9% 16%
Trevor Bayne 0 323 0 -75 <1% <1% 1% 5% 9%
Daniel Suarez 0 313 0 -85 <1% 1% 5% 15% 25%
Kasey Kahne 0 290 0 -108 <1% <1% 3% 11% 26%
Ty Dillon 0 264 0 -134 <1% <1% <1% 2% 7%
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 257 0 -141 <1% <1% 1% 7% 17%
Paul Menard 0 233 0 -165 <1% <1% 1% 3% 11%
Chris Buescher 0 205 0 -193 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
AJ Allmendinger 0 202 0 -196 <1% <1% 1% 5% 15%
Michael McDowell 0 200 0 -198 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
Aric Almirola 0 188 0 -210 <1% 1% 5% 15% 27%
David Ragan 0 185 0 -213 <1% <1% <1% 1% 4%
Danica Patrick 0 176 0 -222 <1% <1% <1% 1% 4%
Cole Whitt 0 167 0 -231 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
Landon Cassill 0 153 0 -245 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Matt DiBenedetto 0 146 0 -252 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Corey Lajoie 0 98 0 -300 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Gray Gaulding 0 82 0 -316 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Reed Sorenson 0 72 0 -326 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 65 0 -333 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Michael Waltrip 0 29 0 -369 1% 7% 14% 15% 15%
Derrike Cope 0 26 0 -372 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Cody Ware 0 4 0 -394 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
D.J. Kennington 0 1 0 -397 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Brendan Gaughan 0 0 0 - Carl Long 0 - Darrell Wallace Jr. 0
- 0 Elliott Sadler 0 0 - JJ Yeley 0 - Joey Gase
0 0 - 0 Regan Smith 0 - Ross Chastain 0 -
Ryan Sieg 0 0 0 - Timmy Hill 0 - ?? ??
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  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the playoffs
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny