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NASCAR Week 12 of 26 - Regular Season

NASCAR Chase Probabilities

Is your favorite driver going to win the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Probabilities table provides two probabilities. The probability that a driver participates in the Chase and the probability that a driver wins the Chase. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Probabilities

Driver Points Points
Ahead 11th or
Behind 10th Place
Wins Chase Probabilities
Chase Winner Chase Participate
Jimmie Johnson 423 108 2 55% > 99%
Carl Edwards 379 64 1 14% > 99%
Matt Kenseth 364 49 3 10% > 99%
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 359 44 0 5% 99%
Clint Bowyer 349 34 0 2% 95%
Kasey Kahne 326 11 1 2% 92%
Brad Keselowski 326 11 0 5% 92%
Kyle Busch 325 10 2 6% 99%
Aric Almirola 317 2 0 < 1% 52%
Kevin Harvick 315 0 1 < 1% 77%
Paul Menard 315 0 0 < 1% 48%
Greg Biffle 311 -4 0 < 1% 50%
 
Jeff Gordon 311 -4 0 < 1% 59%
Martin Truex Jr. 301 -14 0 < 1% 48%
Jamie McMurray 295 -20 0 < 1% 20%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 282 -33 0 < 1% 4%
Ryan Newman 276 -39 0 < 1% 12%
Kurt Busch 262 -53 0 < 1% 10%
Joey Logano 259 -56 0 < 1% 18%
Jeff Burton 258 -57 0 < 1% 3%
Tony Stewart 253 -62 0 < 1% 1%
Juan Pablo Montoya 238 -77 0 < 1% 2%
Marcos Ambrose 235 -80 0 < 1% 1%
Mark Martin 226 -89 0 < 1% 5%
Casey Mears 210 -105 0 < 1% < 1%
David Ragan 197 -118 1 < 1% < 1%
Denny Hamlin 197 -118 0 < 1% 14%
Danica Patrick 196 -119 0 < 1% < 1%
Bobby Labonte 195 -120 0 < 1% < 1%
Dave Blaney 190 -125 0 < 1% < 1%
David Gilliland 188 -127 0 < 1% < 1%
J.J. Yeley 157 -158 0 < 1% < 1%
David Stremme 150 -165 0 < 1% < 1%
David Reutimann 149 -166 0 < 1% < 1%
Landon Cassill 130 -185 0 < 1% < 1%
Travis Kvapil 127 -188 0 < 1% < 1%
AJ Allmendinger 122 -193 0 < 1% < 1%
Scott Speed 74 -241 0 < 1% < 1%
Michael McDowell 72 -243 0 < 1% < 1%
Michael Waltrip 63 -252 0 < 1% < 1%
Terry Labonte 52 -263 0 < 1% < 1%
Timmy Hill 45 -270 0 < 1% < 1%
Ken Schrader 29 -286 0 < 1% < 1%
Scott Riggs 6 -309 0 < 1% < 1%
Brian Keselowski 4 -311 0 < 1% < 1%
Austin Dillon 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
Brian Vickers 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
Elliott Sadler 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
Joe Nemechek 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
Josh Wise 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
Mike Bliss 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
Regan Smith 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
Sam Hornish Jr. 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
Trevor Bayne 0 -315 0 < 1% < 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the Chase
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the Chase - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny