PlayoffStatus.com

Fri May 18 9:45 am

NASCAR Regular Season - Week 13 of 26

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities

How far is your favorite driver going proceed into the NASCAR playoffs? The NASCAR Playoff Probabilities table provides the probabilities that a driver participates in different playoff rounds. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Playoff Probabilities
Driver Wins W Points Pts Playoff
Points
PO
Pts
Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Playoff Probabilities
Monster Energy Cup Champion Championship Race Participate Eliminator Round Participate Contender Round Participate Challenger Round Participate
Kevin Harvick 4 484 24 219 32% 88% 97% 99% >99%
Kyle Busch 3 503 17 238 33% 86% 97% 99% >99%
Joey Logano 1 491 7 226 13% 71% 97% 99% >99%
Clint Bowyer 1 386 5 121 5% 33% 75% 93% >99%
Martin Truex Jr. 1 376 7 111 7% 37% 75% 91% >99%
Austin Dillon 1 241 5 -24 <1% 1% 15% 53% >99%
Brad Keselowski 0 396 4 131 1% 9% 37% 69% 93%
Kurt Busch 0 393 2 128 1% 8% 44% 77% 96%
Denny Hamlin 0 380 1 115 4% 28% 73% 91% 99%
Ryan Blaney 0 365 3 100 1% 8% 39% 69% 90%
Aric Almirola 0 342 0 77 <1% 2% 28% 63% 85%
Kyle Larson 0 336 0 71 2% 15% 45% 71% 91%
Jimmie Johnson 0 286 0 21 <1% 1% 9% 27% 48%
Erik Jones 0 285 0 20 <1% 1% 12% 30% 49%
Alex Bowman 0 271 0 6 <1% 1% 8% 24% 41%
Chase Elliott 0 266 0 1 1% 6% 26% 49% 67%
 
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 265 0 -1 <1% <1% 5% 16% 31%
Paul Menard 0 240 1 -26 <1% 1% 4% 14% 28%
William Byron 0 229 0 -37 <1% <1% 1% 4% 9%
Ryan Newman 0 225 0 -41 <1% <1% 2% 11% 25%
Daniel Suarez 0 223 0 -43 <1% 1% 6% 17% 32%
Darrell Wallace Jr. 0 207 0 -59 <1% <1% 2% 10% 26%
AJ Allmendinger 0 200 0 -66 <1% <1% <1% 3% 11%
Jamie McMurray 0 194 0 -72 <1% <1% 1% 5% 13%
David Ragan 0 191 0 -75 <1% <1% 1% 4% 14%
Chris Buescher 0 176 0 -90 <1% <1% 1% 6% 21%
Kasey Kahne 0 165 0 -101 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
Michael McDowell 0 158 0 -108 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8%
Matt DiBenedetto 0 153 0 -113 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
Ty Dillon 0 148 0 -118 <1% <1% <1% <1% 5%
Trevor Bayne 0 145 0 -121 <1% <1% <1% 1% 7%
Gray Gaulding 0 84 0 -182 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Cole Whitt 0 78 0 -188 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
D.J. Kennington 0 55 0 -211 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Landon Cassill 0 55 0 -211 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Reed Sorenson 0 31 0 -235 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Corey Lajoie 0 28 0 -238 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 28 0 -238 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Brendan Gaughan 0 24 0 -242 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Harrison Rhodes 0 23 0 -243 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Mark Thompson 0 15 0 -251 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Danica Patrick 0 2 0 -264 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Derrike Cope 0 1 0 -265 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Matt Kenseth 0 1 0 -265 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
BJ McLeod 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Chad Finchum 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Cody Ware 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Cole Custer 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Daniel Hemric 0 0 0 - X X X X X
David Gilliland 0 0 0 - X X X X X
JJ Yeley 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Joey Gase 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Justin Marks 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Ross Chastain 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Timmy Hill 0 0 0 - X X X X X
Timothy Peters 0 0 0 - X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better
  • X means the driver cannot participate and/or win the playoffs
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the driver will win or participate in the playoffs - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny