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BCS Bowl Participation Probabilities

Will your team play in one of the five BCS Bowl Games? The BCS Bowl Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team plays in either the Rose, Orange, Surgar, Feista, or national championship bowl game depended upon how the team plays its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the separator between ranked teams 8 and 9. Teams above this line should receive a bowl invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line should receive a bowl invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference championship.

New - So how well did we do in predicting who would play in one of the BCS Bowls? Our computer model correctly identified all but one the 10 teams. Our computer model picked Olklahoma as an participate instead of Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois was ranked #22 in our polls and thus was not eligble for an at large bid much less the automatic bid that it actually received. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year.


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BCS Bowl Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  BCS Bowl
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current Lose Out
1 Notre Dame Independent 111 12 0 - - 100% -
2 Florida SEC 105 11 1 - - 100% -
3 Stanford PAC 12 105 11 2 - - 100% -
4 Alabama SEC 101 12 1 - - 100% -
5 Ohio St. Big 10 99 12 0 - - X -
6 Oregon PAC 12 99 11 1 - - > 99% -
7 Kansas St. Big 12 98 11 1 - - 100% -
8 Oklahoma Big 12 93 10 2 - - > 99% -
 
9 LSU SEC 91 10 2 - - X -
10 South Carolina SEC 90 10 2 - - X -
11 Texas A&M SEC 90 10 2 - - X -
12 Georgia SEC 90 11 2 - - X -
13 Nebraska Big 10 88 10 3 - - < 1% -
14 Oregon St. PAC 12 86 9 3 - - < 1% -
15 Florida St. ACC 81 11 2 - - 100% -
16 Clemson ACC 80 10 2 - - X -
17 UCLA PAC 12 79 9 4 - - X -
18 Michigan Big 10 77 8 4 - - X -
19 San Jose St. WAC 75 10 2 - - X -
20 Texas Big 12 75 8 4 - - X -
21 Northwestern Big 10 75 9 3 - - X -
22 Northern Illinois MAC 74 12 1 - - X -
23 Kent State MAC 73 11 2 - - X -
24 USC PAC 12 73 7 5 - - X -
25 Arizona PAC 12 72 7 5 - - X -
26 Vanderbilt SEC 71 8 4 - - X -
27 Oklahoma St. Big 12 70 7 5 - - X -
28 Penn St. Big 10 70 8 4 - - X -
29 Washington PAC 12 70 7 5 - - X -
30 Ball State MAC 69 9 3 - - X -
31 Louisville Big East 69 10 2 - - 100% -
32 Baylor Big 12 68 7 5 - - X -
33 Wisconsin Big 10 68 8 5 - - > 99% -
34 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 68 9 3 - - X -
35 Utah St. WAC 67 10 2 - - X -
36 TCU Big 12 66 7 5 - - X -
37 Mississippi St. SEC 66 8 4 - - X -
38 Cincinnati Big East 65 9 3 - - X -
39 Rutgers Big East 65 9 3 - - X -
40 Toledo MAC 64 9 3 - - X -
41 Boise St. Mountain West 64 10 2 - - X -
42 West Virginia Big 12 64 7 5 - - X -
43 Texas Tech Big 12 63 7 5 - - X -
44 Fresno St. Mountain West 63 9 3 - - X -
45 Michigan St. Big 10 62 6 6 - - X -
46 Tulsa Conference USA 62 10 3 - - X -
47 Arizona St. PAC 12 62 7 5 - - X -
48 Miami ACC 61 7 5 - - X -
49 Iowa St. Big 12 60 6 6 - - X -
50 San Diego St. Mountain West 59 9 3 - - X -
51 Louisiana Tech WAC 59 9 3 - - X -
52 Navy Independent 59 8 4 - - X -
53 Missouri SEC 59 5 7 - - X -
54 Syracuse Big East 58 7 5 - - X -
55 Ole Miss SEC 57 6 6 - - X -
56 North Carolina ACC 57 8 4 - - X -
57 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 56 8 4 - - X -
58 LA Monroe Sunbelt 55 8 4 - - X -
59 UCF Conference USA 55 9 4 - - X -
60 BYU Independent 54 7 5 - - X -
61 Bowling Green MAC 53 8 4 - - X -
62 Middle Tenn. St. Sunbelt 53 8 4 - - X -
63 Purdue Big 10 51 6 6 - - X -
64 Virginia Tech ACC 50 6 6 - - X -
65 Tennessee SEC 50 5 7 - - X -
66 N.C. State ACC 49 7 5 - - X -
67 Duke ACC 49 6 6 - - X -
68 Ohio MAC 48 8 4 - - X -
69 Western Kentucky Sunbelt 48 7 5 - - X -
70 Minnesota Big 10 47 6 6 - - X -
71 East Carolina Conference USA 47 8 4 - - X -
72 Pittsburgh Big East 47 6 6 - - X -
73 Utah PAC 12 47 5 7 - - X -
74 Georgia Tech ACC 47 6 7 - - X -
75 Arkansas SEC 45 4 8 - - X -
76 UTSA WAC 43 8 4 - - X -
77 Wake Forest ACC 41 5 7 - - X -
78 California PAC 12 41 3 9 - - X -
79 Iowa Big 10 40 4 8 - - X -
80 Nevada Mountain West 39 7 5 - - X -
81 Central Michigan MAC 37 6 6 - - X -
82 Auburn SEC 36 3 9 - - X -
83 SMU Conference USA 36 6 6 - - X -
84 Indiana Big 10 36 4 8 - - X -
85 Connecticut Big East 33 5 7 - - X -
86 Troy Sunbelt 32 5 7 - - X -
87 Air Force Mountain West 32 6 6 - - X -
88 Virginia ACC 32 4 8 - - X -
89 Rice Conference USA 32 6 6 - - X -
90 North Texas Sunbelt 32 4 8 - - X -
91 Washington St. PAC 12 31 3 9 - - X -
92 Kentucky SEC 31 2 10 - - X -
93 Miami OH MAC 30 4 8 - - X -
94 Temple Big East 30 4 7 - - X -
95 Buffalo MAC 29 4 8 - - X -
96 Maryland ACC 29 4 8 - - X -
97 South Florida Big East 27 3 9 - - X -
98 Marshall Conference USA 27 5 7 - - X -
99 Houston Conference USA 26 5 7 - - X -
100 Western Michigan MAC 23 4 8 - - X -
101 Kansas Big 12 23 1 11 - - X -
102 Florida Atlantic Sunbelt 23 3 9 - - X -
103 Illinois Big 10 22 2 10 - - X -
104 Texas St. WAC 22 4 8 - - X -
105 Wyoming Mountain West 21 4 8 - - X -
106 Boston College ACC 21 2 10 - - X -
107 Colorado St. Mountain West 20 4 8 - - X -
108 Colorado PAC 12 18 1 11 - - X -
109 Florida Intl. Sunbelt 18 3 9 - - X -
110 Memphis Conference USA 16 4 8 - - X -
111 Eastern Michigan MAC 15 2 10 - - X -
112 UTEP Conference USA 14 3 9 - - X -
113 UAB Conference USA 14 3 9 - - X -
114 New Mexico Mountain West 13 4 9 - - X -
115 Hawaii Mountain West 11 3 9 - - X -
116 Army Independent 11 2 10 - - X -
117 South Alabama Sunbelt 6 2 11 - - X -
118 Tulane Conference USA 6 2 10 - - X -
119 Idaho WAC 5 1 11 - - X -
120 UNLV Mountain West 2 2 11 - - X -
121 Massachusetts MAC 2 1 11 - - X -
122 Akron MAC 1 1 11 - - X -
123 New Mexico St. WAC -3 1 11 - - X -
124 Southern Miss Conference USA -7 0 12 - - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will play in the championship game - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will play in the championship game - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

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