NFL Options for Dealing with the Bills-Bengals Game

Introduction

We will analyze the ramifications of 4 ways of dealing with the Bills-Bengals Game. These four ways are

1. Rescheduling the game
2. Using a coin flip to determine the game outcome
3. Cancelling the game
4. Declaring the game a tie

Affected Teams

Only the Bill, Bengals, Chiefs, and Ravens playoff pictures are affected by this game and how its outcome is handled, all in significant ways. The first seed and it's first round bye is in play for the Bill, Bengals, and Chiefs while divisional title and it's first round home-field advantage is in play for the Bengals and Ravens.

The Bills-Bengals game does not influence (not even via SOS and SOV tiebreakers) the playoff picture of the remaining teams in the playoff hunt; Jaguars, Titans, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers.

In our discussion we mainly consider the impact on obtaining the 1st round bye via Seed#1 and 1st round home field advantage via divisional title. We are much less concern with the difference in obtaining Seed#2 vs Seed#3 or Seed#5 vs Seed#6 vs Seed#7. Those differences have a much smaller impact on the route to the superbowl.

Inaddition, there is no set of Week 18 game outcomes that will render the Bill-Bengals game irrelevant.

End Results

Let's get to the point. If the game is not rescheduled then the fairest way the handle the Bills-Bengals game is to determine its winner via of a coinflip. Both a Canceled Game or declared Tied Game have the same affect of unfairly helping the Chiefs at the expense of the Bills, Bengals, and Ravens.

The Reschedule Option and the Coin Flip Option both maintain the possibility of the Bills, Chiefs, and Bengals obtaining Seed#1 and the Ravens to win the divisional title, all with similar probability.

Analysis

The table below shows the probability of winning different seeds for each of the four ways of handling the Bills-Bengals game. Each spot may include four different numbers Rescheduled % | Coin Flip % | Cancelled % | Declared Tied % for the affected teams.

For those unfamilar with the site

• ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
• X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
• 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
• 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

Reschedule Game and Coin Flip

Note the probabilities for all Teams and Seeds are approximately equal for these two options. This is expected as the Bills and Bengals are similar in strength and thier game outcome is close to 50-50% to start with.

Rescheduling the game will cause scheduling chaos that will affect fans, players, and game fairness. Some teams will always have more or less time between games. The two teams most negatively affected will be the Bills and Bengals. Have they not suffered enough?

Cancel Game and Declared Tie Game

Note these two options have the same affect on all teams and seeds. They unfairly favors the Chiefs at the expense of the Bill, Bengals, and Ravens. With these options the Chiefs meaningfully increases its probability of obtaining Seed#1 and its 1st round bye. The Chiefs now obtains control to win that seed and clinches at least Seed#2. The Bill's probability for Seed#1 is reduced while the Bengals are eliminated from winning the seed (although this disadvantage is slightly offset by them winning the division with its 1st round home field advantage). The Ravens are eliminated from winning the division and must play a 1st round road game.

For these reasons the Cancel Game and Declared Tie Game options should be avoided with the Coin Flip option perferred to all options.