The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |||
| California (6‑5) vs SMU (8‑3) |
0 | California Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 20% | 1% | 14% | 6% | 34% | 26% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ||
| SMU Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 6% | 8% | 4% | 17% | 6% | 32% | 26% | ^ | ||
| Duke (6‑5) vs Wake Forest (8‑3) |
0 | Duke Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ||
| Pittsburgh (8‑3) vs Miami (9‑2) |
0 | Pittsburgh Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ||
| Miami Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ||
| Virginia (9‑2) vs Virginia Tech (3‑8) |
0 | Virginia Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 4% | 14% | 2% | 16% | 5% | 32% | 27% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 39% | 29% | ^ | ||
| Syracuse (3‑8) vs Boston College (1‑10) |
0 | Syracuse Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 20% | 6% | 20% | 36% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ||
| Boston College Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 73% | ^ | ^ | ||
| North Carolina (4‑7) vs N.C. State (6‑5) |
0 | North Carolina Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 16% | 57% | 12% | 14% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 13% | 3% | 16% | 6% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ||
| N.C. State Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 16% | 7% | 43% | 34% | ^ | ||