The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |||
| Boston College (1‑8) vs SMU (6‑3) |
0 | Boston College Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 32% | 5% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 31% | 2% | ||
| SMU Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 30% | 1% | ||
| Miami (6‑2) vs Syracuse (3‑6) |
0 | Miami Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 31% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 31% | 2% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 35% | 6% | ||
| North Carolina (3‑5) vs Stanford (3‑6) |
0 | North Carolina Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 9% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 31% | 2% | ||
| Stanford Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 47% | 3% | ||
| Clemson (3‑5) vs Florida St. (4‑4) |
0 | Clemson Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 30% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 31% | 2% | ||
| Florida St. Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 33% | 1% | ||
| Louisville (7‑1) vs California (5‑4) |
0 | Louisville Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 31% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 31% | 2% | ||
| California Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 32% | 2% | ||
| Virginia (8‑1) vs Wake Forest (5‑3) |
0 | Virginia Wins | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 31% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 31% | 2% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 32% | 2% | ||