The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |||
| Boston College (2‑2) vs SMU (3‑1) |
0 | Boston College Wins | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | ||
| SMU Wins | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 7% | ||
| Miami (4‑0) vs Clemson (3‑1) |
0 | Miami Wins | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | ||
| Clemson Wins | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% | ||
| Pittsburgh (4‑0) vs Virginia Tech (4‑0) |
0 | Pittsburgh Wins | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | ||
| Stanford (2‑2) vs Wake Forest (3‑1) |
0 | Stanford Wins | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | ||
| Florida St. (2‑2) vs Virginia (3‑1) |
0 | Florida St. Wins | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | ||
| Virginia Wins | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% | ||
| N.C. State (2‑2) vs Louisville (2‑2) |
0 | N.C. State Wins | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | ||
| Louisville Wins | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | ||