The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |||
| North Carolina (2‑5) vs Syracuse (3‑5) |
0 | North Carolina Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 30% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 21% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 20% | 34% | 29% | ||
| California (5‑3) vs Virginia (7‑1) |
0 | California Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 18% | 31% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 21% | ||
| Virginia Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 17% | 31% | 22% | ||
| N.C. State (4‑4) vs Georgia Tech (8‑0) |
0 | N.C. State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 17% | 33% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 21% | ||
| Georgia Tech Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 31% | 21% | ||
| SMU (5‑3) vs Miami (6‑1) |
0 | SMU Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 21% | ||
| Miami Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 31% | 22% | ||
| Clemson (3‑4) vs Duke (4‑3) |
0 | Clemson Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 19% | 32% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 21% | ||
| Duke Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 31% | 22% | ||
| Virginia Tech (3‑5) vs Louisville (6‑1) |
0 | Virginia Tech Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 18% | 32% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 21% | ||
| Louisville Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 17% | 32% | 22% | ||
| Stanford (3‑5) vs Pittsburgh (6‑2) |
0 | Stanford Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 19% | 33% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 21% | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 17% | 31% | 22% | ||
| Florida St. (3‑4) vs Wake Forest (5‑2) |
0 | Florida St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 37% | 24% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 32% | 21% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 21% | 29% | 21% | ||