The UMass-Lowell River Hawks What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how UMass-Lowell plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 1 | 43% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 1 | 36% | 21% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 2 | 25% | 22% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | 41% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 36% | 21% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 36% | 22% | 16% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario NJIT beats Maine Binghamton beats Vermont |
Worst Case Scenario Maine beats NJIT Vermont beats Binghamton |
||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | ||
| 13 of 13 | 100% | 15 | 1 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 13 | 92% | 14 | 2 | 99% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 13 | 85% | 13 | 3 | 90% | 10% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 13 | 77% | 12 | 4 | 65% | 32% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 | 5 | 27% | 51% | 20% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 13 | 62% | 10 | 6 | 4% | 29% | 45% | 20% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 13 | 54% | 9 | 7 | <1% | 4% | 25% | 45% | 24% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 13 | 46% | 8 | 8 | X | <1% | 2% | 21% | 45% | 28% | 4% | <1% | ^ |
| 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 | 9 | X | X | <1% | 2% | 18% | 45% | 31% | 4% | <1% |
| 4 of 13 | 31% | 6 | 10 | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 21% | 51% | 25% | 2% |
| 3 of 13 | 23% | 5 | 11 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 30% | 53% | 14% |
| 2 of 13 | 15% | 4 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 53% | 41% |
| 1 of 13 | 8% | 3 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 29% | 70% |
| 0 of 13 | 0% | 2 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 11% | 89% |