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Fri Nov 22 12:30 am

American Athletic Basketball - Week 3 of 18

Texas-San Antonio What If?

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Texas-San Antonio plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Texas-San Antonio What If?

Next Game - Tulane (4‑1)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
Win Next Game 1 0 <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 13% 16% 20%
Current Standings 0 0 <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 9% 10% 12% 15% 29%
Lose Next Game 0 1 <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 10% 12% 17% 31%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 8% 10% 12% 15% 29%
Current Standings <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 9% 10% 12% 15% 29%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 10% 11% 16% 28%
Best Case Scenario
   Tulane beats Charlotte
 Worst Case Scenario
   Charlotte beats Tulane
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 90% 10% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 65% 32% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 31% 50% 18% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 7% 34% 41% 16% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 1% 8% 33% 39% 17% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% 1% 8% 30% 40% 19% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% <1% 1% 7% 26% 40% 22% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X X <1% <1% 6% 24% 40% 24% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X X <1% <1% 4% 23% 39% 27% 7% 1% <1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X X <1% <1% 4% 21% 40% 28% 7% 1% <1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 19% 40% 30% 8% <1%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 18% 43% 30% 6%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 21% 48% 28%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X <1% 3% 33% 63%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X <1% 10% 90%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament