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Fri Feb 21 11:45 am

American Athletic Basketball - Week 16 of 18

Texas-San Antonio What If?

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Texas-San Antonio plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Texas-San Antonio What If?

Next Game - E. Carolina (15‑12)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
Win Next Game 5 10 X X X X X <1% 1% 2% 9% 26% 40% 14% 8%
Current Standings 4 10 X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 4% 15% 41% 21% 17%
Lose Next Game 4 11 X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 10% 43% 25% 21%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
Best Case Scenario X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 7% 19% 55% 13% 4%
Current Standings X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 4% 15% 41% 21% 17%
Worst Case Scenario X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 14% 35% 25% 25%
Best Case Scenario
   Tulsa beats Rice
   Texas-San Antonio beats E. Carolina
 Worst Case Scenario
   Rice beats Tulsa
   E. Carolina beats Texas-San Antonio
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
4 of 4 100% 8 10 X X X X X 4% 20% 38% 30% 7% <1% ^ ^
3 of 4 75% 7 11 X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 30% 51% 14% <1% ^
2 of 4 50% 6 12 X X X X X X X X <1% 26% 64% 10% <1%
1 of 4 25% 5 13 X X X X X X X X X 1% 41% 39% 18%
0 of 4 0% 4 14 X X X X X X X X X X X 14% 86%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament