The Most Important Games for the UMass Minutemen are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Minutemen final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. UMass Minutemen fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
UMass Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||
| UMass (6‑11) vs Fordham (8‑9) |
5 | UMass Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 17% | 30% | 25% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 43% | ||
| Fordham Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 20% | 54% | ||
| Rhode Island (13‑3) vs Loyola Chicago (10‑4) |
0 | Rhode Island Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 44% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 43% | ||
| Loyola Chicago Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 12% | 23% | 45% | ||
| Geo. Washington (13‑3) vs Duquesne (7‑9) |
0 | Geo. Washington Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 22% | 44% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 43% | ||
| Duquesne Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 12% | 23% | 45% | ||
| Davidson (12‑4) vs La Salle (9‑6) |
0 | Davidson Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 23% | 43% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 43% | ||
| La Salle Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 23% | 44% | ||
| St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt (14‑3) vs Richmond (7‑10) |
0 | St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 13% | 23% | 44% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 43% | ||
| Richmond Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 12% | 23% | 46% | ||
| George Mason (12‑5) vs Dayton (11‑5) |
0 | George Mason Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 44% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 43% | ||
| Dayton Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 13% | 22% | 44% | ||
| VCU (12‑4) vs Saint Louis (10‑6) |
0 | VCU Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 44% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 43% | ||
| Saint Louis Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 22% | 44% | ||