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Sun Jan 12 11:45 am

Big South Basketball - Week 11 of 17

Gardner-Webb What If?

The Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Gardner-Webb plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Gardner-Webb What If?

Next Game - Radford (12‑6)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7*
First Round Bye
 8 9
Win Next Game 3 2 5% 10% 14% 16% 18% 17% 11% 6% 2%
Current Standings 2 2 3% 6% 10% 14% 17% 19% 15% 10% 5%
Lose Next Game 2 3 2% 4% 9% 14% 18% 20% 17% 11% 5%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7*
First Round Bye
 8 9
Best Case Scenario 5% 10% 14% 16% 18% 17% 11% 6% 2%
Current Standings 3% 6% 10% 14% 17% 19% 15% 10% 5%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 4% 9% 14% 18% 20% 17% 11% 5%
Best Case Scenario
   Gardner-Webb beats Radford
 Worst Case Scenario
   Radford beats Gardner-Webb
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7*
First Round Bye
 8 9
12 of 12 100% 14 2 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 12 92% 13 3 89% 11% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 12 83% 12 4 61% 37% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 12 75% 11 5 23% 52% 23% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 12 67% 10 6 3% 27% 49% 20% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^
7 of 12 58% 9 7 <1% 3% 26% 47% 21% 2% <1% ^ ^
6 of 12 50% 8 8 X <1% 3% 25% 48% 23% 2% <1% ^
5 of 12 42% 7 9 X X <1% 2% 24% 50% 21% 2% <1%
4 of 12 33% 6 10 X X X <1% 2% 28% 48% 20% 2%
3 of 12 25% 5 11 X X X X <1% 4% 33% 48% 15%
2 of 12 17% 4 12 X X X X X <1% 7% 44% 49%
1 of 12 8% 3 13 X X X X X X <1% 17% 83%
0 of 12 0% 2 14 X X X X X X X 1% 99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament