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Sun Sep 28 7:15 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 8 of 40

Auxerre What If?

The Auxerre What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Auxerre What If?

Next Game - Lens (3‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 3 4 0 9 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 12%
Current Standings 2 4 0 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 5% 6% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 11% 17%
Lose Next Game 2 5 0 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 10% 10% 12% 12% 12% 18%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 12%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 5% 6% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 11% 17%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 10% 10% 12% 12% 12% 18%
Best Case Scenario
   Auxerre beats Lens
Worst Case Scenario
   Lens beats Auxerre
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
28 of 28 100% 30 4 0 90 98% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 28 96% 29 5 0 87 92% 7% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 28 93% 28 6 0 84 81% 19% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 28 89% 27 7 0 81 64% 33% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 28 86% 26 8 0 78 41% 46% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 28 82% 25 9 0 75 23% 46% 26% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 28 79% 24 10 0 72 9% 34% 38% 16% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 28 75% 23 11 0 69 2% 18% 37% 31% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 28 71% 22 12 0 66 <1% 6% 23% 37% 25% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 28 68% 21 13 0 63 <1% 1% 10% 28% 36% 21% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 28 64% 20 14 0 60 <1% <1% 2% 12% 30% 34% 17% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
17 of 28 61% 19 15 0 57 <1% <1% <1% 3% 14% 32% 33% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
16 of 28 57% 18 16 0 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 33% 31% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
15 of 28 54% 17 17 0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 30% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 28 50% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 19% 35% 28% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 28 46% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 20% 35% 27% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 28 43% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 20% 35% 27% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 28 39% 13 21 0 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 20% 35% 27% 10% 2% <1% <1%
10 of 28 36% 12 22 0 36 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 20% 35% 28% 10% 1% <1%
9 of 28 32% 11 23 0 33 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 21% 36% 28% 9% 1%
8 of 28 29% 10 24 0 30 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 23% 38% 26% 7%
7 of 28 25% 9 25 0 27 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 27% 40% 26%
6 of 28 21% 8 26 0 24 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 36% 54%
5 of 28 18% 7 27 0 21 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 17% 82%
4 of 28 14% 6 28 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 95%
0 of 28 0% 2 32 0 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff