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Sun Jan 12 9:15 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 23 of 40

Saint-Etienne What If?

The Saint-Etienne What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Saint-Etienne What If?

Next Game - Nantes (3‑7‑7)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 6 11 1 19 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 6% 12% 21% 39% 17%
Current Standings 5 11 1 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 16% 41% 27%
Lose Next Game 5 12 1 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 6% 12% 45% 33%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 12% 22% 40% 16%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 16% 41% 27%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 5% 12% 37% 42%
Best Case Scenario
   Brest beats Stade Rennais
   Saint-Etienne beats Nantes
   Stade de Reims beats Le Havre
 Worst Case Scenario
   Stade Rennais beats Brest
   Nantes beats Saint-Etienne
   Le Havre beats Stade de Reims
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
17 of 17 100% 22 11 1 67 1% 27% 56% 16% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 17 94% 21 12 1 64 <1% 8% 45% 37% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 17 88% 20 13 1 61 <1% 1% 18% 42% 30% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 17 82% 19 14 1 58 <1% <1% 3% 19% 39% 29% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 17 76% 18 15 1 55 <1% <1% <1% 3% 18% 37% 31% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
12 of 17 71% 17 16 1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 34% 35% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
11 of 17 65% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 30% 37% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 17 59% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 22% 36% 27% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 17 53% 14 19 1 43 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 32% 34% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 17 47% 13 20 1 40 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 26% 37% 23% 5% <1% <1%
7 of 17 41% 12 21 1 37 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 21% 39% 29% 6% <1%
6 of 17 35% 11 22 1 34 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 20% 46% 29% 1%
5 of 17 29% 10 23 1 31 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 29% 61% 6%
4 of 17 24% 9 24 1 28 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 9% 70% 21%
3 of 17 18% 8 25 1 25 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 50% 49%
2 of 17 12% 7 26 1 22 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 22% 78%
1 of 17 6% 6 27 1 19 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 4% 96%
0 of 17 0% 5 28 1 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff