The Western Michigan Broncos What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Western Michigan plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 1 | 16% | 42% | 20% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 4 | 1 | 14% | 37% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 2 | 1% | 15% | 26% | 27% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 29% | 50% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 14% | 37% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 10% | 21% | 36% | 22% | 5% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario Western Michigan beats Akron UMass beats Toledo Ball State beats Buffalo |
Worst Case Scenario Akron beats Western Michigan Toledo beats UMass Buffalo beats Ball State |
||||||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | ||
| 3 of 3 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 29% | 61% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 3 | 67% | 6 | 2 | 3% | 27% | 41% | 28% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 3 | 33% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 1% | 13% | 33% | 37% | 13% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 3 | 0% | 4 | 4 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 26% | 35% | 20% | 8% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |