The Most Important Games for the Illinois St. Redbirds are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Redbirds final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Illinois St. Redbirds fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Illinois St. Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| Illinois St. (17‑10) vs Murray State (19‑9) |
27 | Illinois St. Wins | X | 5% | 10% | 15% | 15% | 25% | 28% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | 2% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 24% | 34% | 11% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Murray State Wins | X | <1% | 1% | 6% | 11% | 25% | 41% | 17% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Southern Illinois (13‑15) vs Northern Iowa (18‑10) |
9 | Southern Illinois Wins | X | 3% | 6% | 12% | 17% | 18% | 22% | 21% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | 2% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 24% | 34% | 11% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Northern Iowa Wins | X | 3% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 26% | 39% | 6% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| UIC (16‑12) vs Valparaiso (15‑13) |
8 | UIC Wins | X | 1% | 5% | 12% | 16% | 28% | 27% | 10% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | 2% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 24% | 34% | 11% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Valparaiso Wins | X | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 18% | 44% | 12% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Belmont (24‑4) vs Indiana St. (10‑18) |
0 | Belmont Wins | X | 2% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 24% | 34% | 11% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | 2% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 24% | 34% | 11% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Indiana St. Wins | X | 2% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 24% | 34% | 11% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||