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Thu Nov 21 10:30 pm

Patriot League Basketball - Week 3 of 17

Loyola-MD What If?

The Loyola-MD Greyhounds What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Loyola-MD plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Loyola-MD What If?

Next Game - Holy Cross (4‑2)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 1 0 10% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 8% 5%
Current Standings 0 0 8% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8%
Lose Next Game 0 1 5% 10% 11% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 10% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 8% 5%
Current Standings 8% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8%
Worst Case Scenario 5% 10% 11% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9%
Best Case Scenario
   Loyola-MD beats Holy Cross
 Worst Case Scenario
   Holy Cross beats Loyola-MD
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 95% 5% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 77% 23% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 43% 50% 6% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 15% 53% 30% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 3% 28% 50% 18% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% 6% 37% 43% 12% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% <1% 10% 40% 39% 10% 1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X <1% 1% 13% 44% 34% 7% <1% <1% ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X <1% 1% 17% 43% 31% 6% <1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X <1% 2% 21% 45% 28% 5% <1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X <1% 3% 25% 46% 24% 2%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X <1% 5% 33% 48% 15%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X <1% 9% 47% 44%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X 1% 23% 76%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X <1% 6% 94%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament