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Tue Jan 14 7:30 am

Patriot League Basketball - Week 11 of 17

Loyola-MD What If?

The Loyola-MD Greyhounds What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Loyola-MD plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Loyola-MD What If?

Next Game - Lehigh (6‑9)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 3 3 4% 7% 10% 11% 13% 13% 13% 13% 10% 6%
Current Standings 2 3 3% 6% 8% 9% 10% 12% 13% 13% 14% 12%
Lose Next Game 2 4 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 13% 14% 16% 15%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 3% 6% 8% 10% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 13%
Current Standings 3% 6% 8% 9% 10% 12% 13% 13% 14% 12%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 11%
Best Case Scenario
   Navy beats Colgate
 Worst Case Scenario
   Colgate beats Navy
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
13 of 13 100% 15 3 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 14 4 88% 12% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 13 5 62% 34% 4% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 13 77% 12 6 27% 49% 22% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 13 69% 11 7 4% 29% 43% 21% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 13 62% 10 8 <1% 3% 22% 41% 27% 6% <1% ^ ^ ^
7 of 13 54% 9 9 X <1% 1% 13% 35% 37% 13% 1% <1% ^
6 of 13 46% 8 10 X X <1% <1% 6% 26% 42% 22% 4% <1%
5 of 13 38% 7 11 X X X X <1% 3% 20% 44% 29% 4%
4 of 13 31% 6 12 X X X X X <1% 2% 21% 51% 26%
3 of 13 23% 5 13 X X X X X X <1% 4% 36% 60%
2 of 13 15% 4 14 X X X X X X X <1% 14% 85%
1 of 13 8% 3 15 X X X X X X X X 3% 97%
0 of 13 0% 2 16 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament