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Sun Oct 5 5:15 pm

Serie A - Week 9 of 40

Bologna What If?

The Bologna What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bologna What If?

Next Game - Cagliari (2‑2‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 4 2 1 13 6% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 3 2 1 10 5% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Lose Next Game 3 3 1 10 4% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 6% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 5% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Bologna beats Cagliari
 Worst Case Scenario
   Cagliari beats Bologna
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
32 of 32 100% 35 2 1 106 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 32 94% 33 4 1 100 98% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 32 91% 32 5 1 97 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 32 88% 31 6 1 94 85% 14% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 32 84% 30 7 1 91 71% 27% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 32 81% 29 8 1 88 53% 39% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 32 78% 28 9 1 85 34% 47% 17% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 32 75% 27 10 1 82 18% 44% 31% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 32 72% 26 11 1 79 7% 31% 39% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 32 69% 25 12 1 76 2% 16% 35% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 32 66% 24 13 1 73 1% 6% 23% 36% 26% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 32 63% 23 14 1 70 <1% 1% 9% 27% 34% 21% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 32 59% 22 15 1 67 <1% <1% 2% 12% 29% 32% 18% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
18 of 32 56% 21 16 1 64 <1% <1% <1% 4% 15% 30% 31% 16% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
17 of 32 53% 20 17 1 61 <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 16% 30% 30% 15% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
16 of 32 50% 19 18 1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 17% 31% 29% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 32 47% 18 19 1 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 32% 29% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 32 44% 17 20 1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 32% 28% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 32 41% 16 21 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 32 38% 15 22 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 32 34% 14 23 1 43 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2% <1% <1%
10 of 32 31% 13 24 1 40 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2% <1%
9 of 32 28% 12 25 1 37 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2%
8 of 32 25% 11 26 1 34 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 30% 13%
7 of 32 22% 10 27 1 31 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 20% 37% 39%
6 of 32 19% 9 28 1 28 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 23% 72%
5 of 32 16% 8 29 1 25 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 92%
0 of 32 0% 3 34 1 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Serie A Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round