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Sun Oct 5 5:15 pm

Serie A - Week 9 of 40

Cagliari What If?

The Cagliari What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Cagliari What If?

Next Game - Bologna (3‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 3 2 2 11 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 3% 4%
Current Standings 2 2 2 8 <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 6%
Lose Next Game 2 3 2 8 <1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 6%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 3% 4%
Current Standings <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 6%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 6%
Best Case Scenario
   Cagliari beats Bologna
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bologna beats Cagliari
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
32 of 32 100% 34 2 2 104 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 32 94% 32 4 2 98 95% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 32 91% 31 5 2 95 88% 11% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 32 88% 30 6 2 92 76% 22% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 32 84% 29 7 2 89 60% 35% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 32 81% 28 8 2 86 41% 45% 13% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 32 78% 27 9 2 83 24% 45% 26% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 32 75% 26 10 2 80 11% 35% 37% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 32 72% 25 11 2 77 4% 20% 38% 29% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 32 69% 24 12 2 74 1% 8% 26% 36% 22% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 32 66% 23 13 2 71 <1% 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 32 63% 22 14 2 68 <1% <1% 3% 15% 31% 31% 16% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 32 59% 21 15 2 65 <1% <1% 1% 4% 16% 31% 30% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
18 of 32 56% 20 16 2 62 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 31% 29% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 32 53% 19 17 2 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 18% 31% 29% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 32 50% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 33% 27% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 32 47% 17 19 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 34% 27% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 32 44% 16 20 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 32 41% 15 21 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 22% 35% 26% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 32 38% 14 22 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 23% 35% 24% 8% 1% <1% <1%
11 of 32 34% 13 23 2 41 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 24% 35% 23% 8% 1% <1%
10 of 32 31% 12 24 2 38 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 25% 35% 23% 7% 1%
9 of 32 28% 11 25 2 35 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 26% 35% 22% 6%
8 of 32 25% 10 26 2 32 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 28% 36% 25%
7 of 32 22% 9 27 2 29 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 31% 56%
6 of 32 19% 8 28 2 26 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 84%
5 of 32 16% 7 29 2 23 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 97%
0 of 32 0% 2 34 2 8 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Serie A Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round