The Most Important Games for the Arkansas St. Red Wolves are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Red Wolves final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Arkansas St. Red Wolves fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Arkansas St. Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10** First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Arkansas St. (12‑5) vs LA Lafayette (5‑12) |
23 | Arkansas St. Wins | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| LA Lafayette Wins | 23% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| UL Monroe (4‑14) vs Troy (10‑6) |
4 | UL Monroe Wins | 38% | 23% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Troy Wins | 35% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina (8‑9) vs Georgia Southern (8‑9) |
1 | Coastal Carolina Wins | 35% | 24% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Marshall (10‑8) vs James Madison (9‑8) |
1 | Marshall Wins | 36% | 24% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| James Madison Wins | 35% | 23% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia St. (7‑10) vs Texas State (9‑8) |
1 | Georgia St. Wins | 35% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Texas State Wins | 35% | 24% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Old Dominion (6‑9) vs Appalachian St.App.St. (9‑7) |
1 | Old Dominion Wins | 36% | 23% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App.St. Wins | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Southern Miss (8‑10) vs South Alabama (12‑5) |
0 | Southern Miss Wins | 40% | 21% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| South Alabama Wins | 35% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||