The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| North Carolina (2‑1) vs Georgia Tech (2‑2) |
25 | North Carolina Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Georgia Tech Wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 27% | ||
| Clemson (4‑1) vs Miami (3‑1) |
2 | Clemson Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Miami Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 23% | ||
| Louisville (2‑1) vs Duke (3‑1) |
2 | Louisville Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Duke Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Pittsburgh (5‑0) vs Virginia Tech (3‑2) |
1 | Pittsburgh Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| SMU (4‑1) vs Virginia (3‑1) |
1 | SMU Wins | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Virginia Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Notre Dame (4‑0) vs Syracuse (3‑1) |
0 | Notre Dame Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| N.C. State (4‑0) vs Florida St. (4‑1) |
0 | N.C. State Wins | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Florida St. Wins | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 22% | ||
| California (4‑1) vs Stanford (5‑0) |
0 | California Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Stanford Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Wake Forest (5‑1) vs Boston College (3‑1) |
0 | Wake Forest Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Boston College Wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 23% | ||