The Louisville Cardinals What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Louisville plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Win Next Game | 2 | 1 | 5% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 1 | 1 | 2% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 1 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 5% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Louisville beats Miami |
Worst Case Scenario Miami beats Louisville |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | ||
| 6 of 6 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 22% | 45% | 28% | 5% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 6 | 83% | 6 | 2 | 1% | 10% | 30% | 35% | 19% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 6 | 67% | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 26% | 33% | 21% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 6 | 50% | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 4% | 15% | 26% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 6 | 33% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 5% | 16% | 27% | 26% | 18% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1 of 6 | 17% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 20% | 33% | 26% | 12% | 2% |
| 0 of 6 | 0% | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 5% | 22% | 30% | 43% |