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Sun Jan 12 9:15 pm

American Athletic Basketball - Week 11 of 18

Texas-San Antonio What If?

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Texas-San Antonio plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Texas-San Antonio What If?

Next Game - Rice (11‑6)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
Win Next Game 2 2 <1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 8% 8% 10% 10% 12% 13% 13% 9%
Current Standings 1 2 <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 10% 12% 14% 17% 14%
Lose Next Game 1 3 <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 10% 12% 15% 20% 17%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
Best Case Scenario <1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 8% 8% 10% 10% 12% 13% 13% 9%
Current Standings <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 10% 12% 14% 17% 14%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 10% 12% 15% 20% 17%
Best Case Scenario
   Texas-San Antonio beats Rice
 Worst Case Scenario
   Rice beats Texas-San Antonio
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11**
First Round Bye
 12 13
15 of 15 100% 16 2 77% 23% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 15 3 39% 60% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 14 4 14% 78% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 15 80% 13 5 3% 67% 28% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 15 73% 12 6 <1% 34% 48% 16% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 15 67% 11 7 <1% 6% 33% 39% 17% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 15 60% 10 8 <1% <1% 5% 25% 37% 25% 7% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
8 of 15 53% 9 9 X X <1% 2% 13% 32% 34% 16% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^
7 of 15 47% 8 10 X X X <1% <1% 4% 20% 35% 29% 10% 1% <1% <1%
6 of 15 40% 7 11 X X X X <1% <1% 1% 10% 28% 37% 20% 4% <1%
5 of 15 33% 6 12 X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 24% 42% 25% 3%
4 of 15 27% 5 13 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 27% 49% 20%
3 of 15 20% 4 14 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 6% 45% 49%
2 of 15 13% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X X <1% 23% 77%
1 of 15 7% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X 7% 93%
0 of 15 0% 1 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament