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Wed Nov 20 9:15 am

UEFA Champions League - Week 9 of 20

UCL Knockout Round Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the knockout round? The UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different knockout rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team page.

UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Probabilities
Record UCL Winner Finals Semi Finals Quarter Finals Round of 16 Round 1
Team W L T Pts
Manchester City 2 1 1 7 17% 28% 44% 65% 89% 98%
Bayern Munich 2 2 0 6 14% 24% 39% 59% 85% 97%
Liverpool 4 0 0 12 12% 22% 40% 67% 99% >99%
Real Madrid 2 2 0 6 12% 21% 35% 56% 83% 97%
Inter Milan 3 0 1 10 9% 18% 35% 62% 96% >99%
Dortmund 3 1 0 9 8% 17% 33% 59% 94% >99%
Paris SG 1 2 1 4 7% 13% 22% 37% 58% 76%
Barcelona 3 1 0 9 5% 12% 26% 52% 89% >99%
Leverkusen 2 1 1 7 4% 8% 19% 41% 77% 97%
Atletico Madrid 2 2 0 6 3% 7% 16% 35% 67% 93%
Atalanta 2 0 2 8 2% 6% 16% 38% 77% 98%
Juventus 2 1 1 7 2% 5% 12% 29% 63% 92%
Arsenal 2 1 1 7 1% 4% 12% 33% 74% 97%
Benfica 2 2 0 6 1% 4% 11% 27% 60% 91%
RB Leipzig 0 4 0 0 1% 3% 6% 12% 21% 32%
AC Milan 2 2 0 6 1% 2% 6% 21% 58% 93%
Club Brugge 2 2 0 6 1% 2% 5% 15% 41% 74%
Sporting CP 3 0 1 10 <1% 2% 7% 25% 73% >99%
Zagreb 2 1 1 7 <1% 1% 3% 10% 39% 82%
Feyenoord 2 2 0 6 <1% 1% 3% 10% 31% 65%
Shakhtar 1 2 1 4 <1% 1% 3% 9% 25% 51%
Lille 2 1 1 7 <1% <1% 2% 10% 40% 88%
PSV Eindhoven 1 1 2 5 <1% <1% 2% 8% 29% 65%
Monaco 3 0 1 10 <1% <1% 1% 8% 43% 98%
Celtic 2 1 1 7 <1% <1% 1% 6% 32% 81%
Aston Villa 3 1 0 9 <1% <1% <1% 4% 31% 90%
Brest 3 0 1 10 <1% <1% <1% 2% 17% 90%
Salzburg 1 3 0 3 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 6%
Stuttgart 1 2 1 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17%
Sparta Prague 1 2 1 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10%
RS Belgrade 0 4 0 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 6%
Young Boys 0 4 0 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 6%
Girona 1 3 0 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8%
Bologna 0 3 1 1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
Slovan 0 4 0 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Sturm Graz 0 4 0 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next knockout round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this knockout round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this knockout round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this knockout round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot