PlayoffStatus.com

Sat Sep 27 10:45 pm

American Athletic Football - Week 6 of 14

Memphis What If?

The Memphis Tigers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Memphis plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Memphis What If?

Next Game - Tulsa (2‑3)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
2*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Win Next Game 2 0 19% 15% 13% 12% 10% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 1 0 18% 15% 12% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 1 1 9% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
2*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Best Case Scenario 19% 15% 13% 12% 10% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 18% 15% 12% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 9% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Memphis beats Tulsa
Worst Case Scenario
   Tulsa beats Memphis
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
2*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
7 of 7 100% 8 0 91% 9% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 7 86% 7 1 50% 40% 10% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 7 71% 6 2 4% 23% 41% 25% 7% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 7 57% 5 3 <1% 1% 5% 20% 34% 28% 10% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 7 43% 4 4 X X <1% <1% 3% 15% 31% 31% 16% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^
2 of 7 29% 3 5 X X X X X <1% 2% 12% 28% 34% 19% 4% <1% <1%
1 of 7 14% 2 6 X X X X X X X <1% 2% 13% 32% 34% 16% 2%
0 of 7 0% 1 7 X X X X X X X X X <1% 5% 25% 43% 26%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes Conference Championship Game Participant