The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Remaining Games Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
9 | 10 | ||||
| Air Force (14‑12‑2) vs Mercyhurst (4‑22‑2) 2 Games Remaining |
122 | Air Force Sweeps 2 Games | 1% | 4% | 15% | 23% | 26% | 20% | 11% | <1% | <1% | ^ | |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||
| Mercyhurst Sweeps 2 Games | X | <1% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 26% | 46% | 11% | 2% | <1% | |||
| Holy Cross (13‑13‑2) vs Canisius (14‑12‑2) 2 Games Remaining |
20 | Holy Cross Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | 1% | 11% | 26% | 26% | 24% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||
| Canisius Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | 5% | 11% | 17% | 22% | 20% | 23% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||
| Niagara (9‑17‑1) vs RIT (16‑12‑2) 1 Game Remaining |
6 | Niagara Sweeps 1 Game | 1% | 6% | 14% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 17% | 2% | 1% | <1% | |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||
| RIT Sweeps 1 Game | <1% | 3% | 11% | 19% | 25% | 23% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||
| Army (11‑13‑5) vs Bentley (15‑8‑5) 1 Game Remaining |
2 | Army Sweeps 1 Game | 1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 23% | 22% | 16% | 3% | <1% | <1% | |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | |||
| Bentley Sweeps 1 Game | <1% | 3% | 12% | 19% | 23% | 23% | 18% | 1% | <1% | <1% | |||
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
9 | 10 | |||
| Air Force (14‑12‑2) vs Mercyhurst (4‑22‑2) |
64 | Air Force Wins | <1% | 4% | 13% | 21% | 25% | 21% | 14% | 1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Mercyhurst Wins | <1% | <1% | 4% | 11% | 21% | 28% | 31% | 5% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Holy Cross (13‑13‑2) vs Canisius (14‑12‑2) |
8 | Holy Cross Wins | <1% | 3% | 12% | 21% | 25% | 23% | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Canisius Wins | <1% | 4% | 13% | 17% | 22% | 21% | 20% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Niagara (9‑17‑1) vs RIT (16‑12‑2) |
6 | Niagara Wins | 1% | 6% | 14% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 17% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| RIT Wins | <1% | 3% | 11% | 19% | 25% | 23% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Army (11‑13‑5) vs Bentley (15‑8‑5) |
2 | Army Wins | 1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 23% | 22% | 16% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Bentley Wins | <1% | 3% | 12% | 19% | 23% | 23% | 18% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||