The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Remaining Games Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
5** First Round Bye |
6*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
7*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| Air Force (12‑12‑1) vs Army (7‑16) 2 Games Remaining |
30 | Air Force Sweeps 2 Games | 14% | 22% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Army Sweeps 2 Games | 1% | 7% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 13% | 7% | 4% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Bentley (12‑8‑2) vs Holy Cross (9‑12‑2) 2 Games Remaining |
2 | Bentley Sweeps 2 Games | 8% | 20% | 22% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Holy Cross Sweeps 2 Games | 15% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Canisius (7‑11‑2) vs Robert Morris (8‑10‑3) 1 Game Remaining |
2 | Canisius Sweeps 1 Game | 10% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Robert Morris Sweeps 1 Game | 10% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Mercyhurst (2‑19‑3) vs Niagara (11‑9‑3) 1 Game Remaining |
2 | Mercyhurst Sweeps 1 Game | 11% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Niagara Sweeps 1 Game | 9% | 17% | 20% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| American Int'l (7‑13‑1) vs Sacred Heart (12‑8‑4) 2 Games Remaining |
1 | American Int'l Sweeps 2 Games | 12% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Sacred Heart Sweeps 2 Games | 9% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantange |
5** First Round Bye |
6*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
7*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantange |
9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| Air Force (12‑12‑1) vs Army (7‑16) |
14 | Air Force Wins | 12% | 20% | 20% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Army Wins | 5% | 13% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Canisius (7‑11‑2) vs Robert Morris (8‑10‑3) |
2 | Canisius Wins | 10% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Robert Morris Wins | 10% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Mercyhurst (2‑19‑3) vs Niagara (11‑9‑3) |
2 | Mercyhurst Wins | 11% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Niagara Wins | 9% | 17% | 20% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Bentley (12‑8‑2) vs Holy Cross (9‑12‑2) |
1 | Bentley Wins | 9% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Holy Cross Wins | 12% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Sacred Heart (12‑8‑4) vs American Int'l (7‑13‑1) |
0 | Sacred Heart Wins | 9% | 17% | 20% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| American Int'l Wins | 11% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||