The Most Important Games for the Cal Poly Mustangs are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Mustangs final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Cal Poly Mustangs fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Cal Poly Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |||
| Cal Poly (6‑12) vs UC Davis (9‑8) |
19 | Cal Poly Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 72% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||
| UC Davis Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 87% | ||
| UC San Diego (14‑3) vs Long Beach St. (7‑10) |
1 | UC San Diego Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 78% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||
| Long Beach St. Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||
| UCSB (11‑5) vs UC Riverside (10‑7) |
1 | UCSB Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||
| UC Riverside Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||
| Hawai'i (11‑5) vs CSU Northridge (11‑6) |
1 | Hawai'i Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||
| CSU Northridge Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||
| UC Irvine (15‑2) vs CSU Fullerton (5‑13) |
0 | UC Irvine Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||
| CSU Fullerton Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 79% | ||