The Most Important Games for the Cal Poly Mustangs are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Mustangs final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Cal Poly Mustangs fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Cal Poly Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |||
| Cal Poly (11‑16) vs Hawai'i (18‑6) |
8 | Cal Poly Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 16% | 37% | 37% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 58% | 7% | ||
| Hawai'i Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 22% | 63% | 8% | ||
| UC Irvine (17‑9) vs Long Beach St. (8‑18) |
8 | UC Irvine Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 25% | 59% | 5% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 58% | 7% | ||
| Long Beach St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 23% | 53% | 13% | ||
| UC Davis (16‑10) vs CSU Fullerton (13‑14) |
0 | UC Davis Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 30% | 51% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 58% | 7% | ||
| CSU Fullerton Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 17% | 65% | 7% | ||
| CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild (8‑18) vs UC Riverside (8‑19) |
0 | CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 58% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 58% | 7% | ||
| UC Riverside Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 58% | 7% | ||
| CSU Northridge (16‑10) vs UCSB (17‑9) |
0 | CSU Northridge Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 22% | 59% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 58% | 7% | ||
| UCSB Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 26% | 56% | 7% | ||