The Most Important Games for the Cal Poly Mustangs are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Mustangs final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Cal Poly Mustangs fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Cal Poly Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |||
| Cal Poly (5‑6) vs UC San Diego (9‑1) |
27 | Cal Poly Wins | 2% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 24% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 31% | ||
| UC San Diego Wins | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 34% | ||
| Hawai'i (10‑2) vs UC Riverside (5‑6) |
2 | Hawai'i Wins | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 31% | ||
| UC Riverside Wins | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 32% | ||
| CSU Fullerton (5‑7) vs UCSB (8‑3) |
1 | CSU Fullerton Wins | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 33% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 31% | ||
| UCSB Wins | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 32% | ||
| UC Irvine (7‑4) vs CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild (4‑8) |
0 | UC Irvine Wins | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 31% | ||
| CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Wins | 1% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 32% | ||
| CSU Northridge (6‑5) vs UC Davis (5‑4) |
0 | CSU Northridge Wins | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 32% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 31% | ||
| UC Davis Wins | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 32% | ||