The Most Important Games for the Cal Poly Mustangs are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Mustangs final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Cal Poly Mustangs fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Cal Poly Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |||
| Cal Poly (3‑3) vs UC Davis (3‑2) |
27 | Cal Poly Wins | 9% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| UC Davis Wins | 5% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 21% | ||
| UC San Diego (3‑2) vs UCSB (4‑1) |
4 | UC San Diego Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 19% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| UCSB Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| CSU Fullerton (1‑4) vs Long Beach St. (1‑4) |
2 | CSU Fullerton Wins | 8% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| Long Beach St. Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| CSU Northridge (3‑1) vs UC Riverside (2‑3) |
1 | CSU Northridge Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| UC Riverside Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild (3‑2) vs UC Irvine (4‑0) |
0 | CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 21% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| UC Irvine Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 20% | ||