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Sun Sep 28 7:15 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 8 of 40

Metz What If?

The Metz What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Metz What If?

Next Game - Marseille (3‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 1 4 2 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 9% 13% 51%
Current Standings 0 4 2 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 5% 6% 8% 11% 59%
Lose Next Game 0 5 2 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 6% 8% 11% 60%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 9% 13% 51%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 5% 6% 8% 11% 59%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 6% 8% 11% 60%
Best Case Scenario
   Metz beats Marseille
 Worst Case Scenario
   Marseille beats Metz
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
28 of 28 100% 28 4 2 86 93% 7% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 28 96% 27 5 2 83 81% 18% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 28 93% 26 6 2 80 62% 33% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 28 89% 25 7 2 77 41% 45% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 28 86% 24 8 2 74 21% 44% 27% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 28 82% 23 9 2 71 8% 32% 39% 18% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 28 79% 22 10 2 68 2% 16% 35% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 28 75% 21 11 2 65 <1% 5% 21% 36% 27% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 28 71% 20 12 2 62 <1% 1% 8% 25% 36% 23% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 28 68% 19 13 2 59 <1% <1% 2% 10% 28% 35% 20% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
18 of 28 64% 18 14 2 56 <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 30% 34% 17% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
17 of 28 61% 17 15 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 32% 32% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
16 of 28 57% 16 16 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 33% 31% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 28 54% 15 17 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 33% 30% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 28 50% 14 18 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 33% 30% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 28 46% 13 19 2 41 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 33% 31% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 28 43% 12 20 2 38 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 31% 32% 15% 3% <1% <1%
11 of 28 39% 11 21 2 35 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 31% 32% 16% 4% <1%
10 of 28 36% 10 22 2 32 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 30% 34% 17% 3%
9 of 28 32% 9 23 2 29 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 32% 36% 18%
8 of 28 29% 8 24 2 26 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 15% 38% 46%
7 of 28 25% 7 25 2 23 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 20% 77%
6 of 28 21% 6 26 2 20 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 94%
5 of 28 18% 5 27 2 17 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
0 of 28 0% 0 32 2 2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff