The Toledo Rockets What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Toledo plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Win Next Game | 6 | 1 | 29% | 23% | 18% | 28% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 5 | 1 | 25% | 22% | 18% | 27% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 5 | 2 | 3% | 13% | 29% | 24% | 18% | 10% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 54% | 18% | 14% | 14% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 25% | 22% | 18% | 27% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | 1% | 8% | 36% | 23% | 22% | 10% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan Central Michigan beats Buffalo Toledo beats Bowling Green |
Worst Case Scenario Western Michigan beats Eastern Michigan Buffalo beats Central Michigan Bowling Green beats Toledo |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | ||
| 2 of 2 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 53% | 37% | 10% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 2 | 50% | 6 | 2 | 4% | 18% | 39% | 36% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 2 | 0% | 5 | 3 | X | <1% | 2% | 36% | 37% | 21% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |