The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Air Force (5‑1) vs Wyoming (4‑3) |
33 | Air Force Wins | 23% | 28% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 18% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Wyoming Wins | 4% | 14% | 20% | 24% | 20% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| New Mexico (5‑1) vs North Dakota St. (6‑1) |
5 | New Mexico Wins | 32% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 18% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| North Dakota St. Wins | 11% | 28% | 25% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Hawaii (1‑6) vs Northern Illinois (0‑6) |
1 | Hawaii Wins | 19% | 24% | 22% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 18% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Northern Illinois Wins | 17% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Nevada (2‑4) vs San José State (4‑3) |
1 | Nevada Wins | 18% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 18% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| San José State Wins | 18% | 23% | 21% | 17% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||