The Air Force Falcons What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Air Force plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 4 | 1 | 23% | 28% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 3 | 1 | 18% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 3 | 2 | 4% | 14% | 20% | 24% | 20% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 23% | 28% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 18% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 4% | 14% | 20% | 24% | 20% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Air Force beats Wyoming |
Worst Case Scenario Wyoming beats Air Force |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||
| 4 of 4 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 62% | 35% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 4 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 11% | 44% | 36% | 8% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 4 | 50% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 3% | 26% | 45% | 22% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 4 | 25% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 7% | 36% | 42% | 13% | 1% | <1% | ^ |
| 0 of 4 | 0% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | 1% | 25% | 43% | 29% | 3% | <1% |