The New Mexico Lobos What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how New Mexico plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Win Next Game | 2 | 2 | 1% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 1 | 2 | <1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 2% |
| Lose Next Game | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 14% | 3% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 1% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% | <1% |
| Current Standings | <1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 2% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 14% | 3% |
|
Best Case Scenario New Mexico beats Utah St. |
Worst Case Scenario Utah St. beats New Mexico |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 5 of 5 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 9% | 50% | 32% | 8% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 5 | 80% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 3% | 18% | 38% | 29% | 11% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 5 | 60% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 2% | 13% | 31% | 34% | 17% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 10% | 26% | 37% | 22% | 3% | <1% |
| 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 11% | 33% | 50% | 4% |
| 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 4% | 65% | 30% |