The Grizzlies What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Grizzlies play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7** Play-in Tournament Participant |
8** Play-in Tournament Participant |
9** Play-in Tournament Participant |
10** Play-in Tournament Participant |
11 | |
| Win Next Game | 43 | 24 | <1% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 18% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 42 | 24 | <1% | 17% | 24% | 25% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 42 | 25 | <1% | 13% | 21% | 25% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7** Play-in Tournament Participant |
8** Play-in Tournament Participant |
9** Play-in Tournament Participant |
10** Play-in Tournament Participant |
11 | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | 27% | 29% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | <1% | 17% | 24% | 25% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 11% | 20% | 25% | 27% | 11% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Bucks beats Lakers Grizzlies beats Cavaliers Mavericks beats Rockets |
Worst Case Scenario Lakers beats Bucks Cavaliers beats Grizzlies Rockets beats Mavericks |
||||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7** Play-in Tournament Participant |
8** Play-in Tournament Participant |
9** Play-in Tournament Participant |
10** Play-in Tournament Participant |
11 | ||
| 16 of 16 | 100% | 58 | 24 | <1% | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 16 | 94% | 57 | 25 | <1% | >99% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 16 | 88% | 56 | 26 | <1% | 98% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 16 | 81% | 55 | 27 | <1% | 91% | 9% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 16 | 75% | 54 | 28 | X | 73% | 26% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 16 | 69% | 53 | 29 | X | 44% | 46% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 16 | 63% | 52 | 30 | X | 18% | 51% | 27% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 16 | 56% | 51 | 31 | X | 5% | 31% | 47% | 16% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 16 | 50% | 50 | 32 | X | 1% | 11% | 41% | 41% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 16 | 44% | 49 | 33 | X | <1% | 2% | 20% | 52% | 23% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 16 | 38% | 48 | 34 | X | <1% | <1% | 5% | 36% | 43% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 5 of 16 | 31% | 47 | 35 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 14% | 44% | 36% | 5% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 4 of 16 | 25% | 46 | 36 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 25% | 51% | 20% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 of 16 | 19% | 45 | 37 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 9% | 44% | 42% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 of 16 | 13% | 44 | 38 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 23% | 59% | 16% | 1% | <1% |
| 1 of 16 | 6% | 43 | 39 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 7% | 52% | 37% | 4% | <1% |
| 0 of 16 | 0% | 42 | 40 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 31% | 53% | 15% | <1% |