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Thu Mar 13 1:00 am

NBA - Week 21 of 25

Nuggets What If?

The Nuggets What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Nuggets play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Nuggets What If?

Next Game - Lakers (40‑23)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
Win Next Game 43 24 <1% 41% 25% 17% 10% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 42 24 <1% 34% 25% 19% 13% 6% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 42 25 <1% 23% 24% 23% 17% 9% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
Best Case Scenario <1% 43% 23% 16% 10% 5% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings <1% 34% 25% 19% 13% 6% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 29% 25% 22% 15% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Bucks beats Lakers
   Cavaliers beats Grizzlies
   Mavericks beats Rockets
 Worst Case Scenario
   Lakers beats Bucks
   Grizzlies beats Cavaliers
   Rockets beats Mavericks
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
16 of 16 100% 58 24 <1% >99% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 57 25 <1% >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 56 26 <1% 99% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 16 81% 55 27 <1% 96% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 16 75% 54 28 X 87% 13% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 16 69% 53 29 X 64% 31% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 16 63% 52 30 X 34% 45% 19% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 16 56% 51 31 X 11% 36% 40% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 16 50% 50 32 X 2% 15% 41% 34% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
7 of 16 44% 49 33 X <1% 2% 20% 46% 28% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^
6 of 16 38% 48 34 X <1% <1% 5% 31% 48% 16% <1% <1% <1% ^
5 of 16 31% 47 35 X <1% <1% <1% 11% 47% 39% 3% <1% <1% ^
4 of 16 25% 46 36 X <1% <1% <1% 2% 27% 58% 12% <1% <1% <1%
3 of 16 19% 45 37 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 10% 59% 29% 1% <1% <1%
2 of 16 13% 44 38 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 41% 51% 7% <1% <1%
1 of 16 6% 43 39 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 19% 61% 19% 1% <1%
0 of 16 0% 42 40 X X X X <1% <1% 6% 51% 38% 5% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • ** denotes Play-in Tournament Participant