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Thu Mar 13 1:00 am

NBA - Week 21 of 25

Trail Blazers What If?

The Trail Blazers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Trail Blazers play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Trail Blazers What If?

Next Game - Raptors (23‑43)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
Win Next Game 29 39 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 97%
Current Standings 28 39 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 98%
Lose Next Game 28 40 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
Best Case Scenario X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 97%
Current Standings X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 98%
Worst Case Scenario X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
Best Case Scenario
   Warriors beats Kings
   Rockets beats Mavericks
 Worst Case Scenario
   Kings beats Warriors
   Mavericks beats Rockets
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
15 of 15 100% 43 39 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 17% 65% 16% 1%
14 of 15 93% 42 40 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 5% 54% 35% 6%
13 of 15 87% 41 41 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 31% 48% 20%
12 of 15 80% 40 42 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 12% 44% 44%
11 of 15 73% 39 43 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 28% 68%
10 of 15 67% 38 44 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 11% 88%
9 of 15 60% 37 45 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 97%
8 of 15 53% 36 46 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
7 of 15 47% 35 47 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
6 of 15 40% 34 48 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
5 of 15 33% 33 49 X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
4 of 15 27% 32 50 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
3 of 15 20% 31 51 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 15 13% 30 52 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 15 7% 29 53 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 28 54 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • ** denotes Play-in Tournament Participant