The Mercyhurst Lakers What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Mercyhurst plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 24% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 22% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 4% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 16% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 5% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | 24% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% |
| Current Standings | 22% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 4% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 16% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 5% |
|
Best Case Scenario Mercyhurst beats Stonehill |
Worst Case Scenario Stonehill beats Mercyhurst |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | ||
| 16 of 16 | 100% | 16 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 16 | 94% | 15 | 1 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 16 | 88% | 14 | 2 | 96% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 16 | 81% | 13 | 3 | 77% | 23% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 | 4 | 42% | 50% | 8% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 16 | 69% | 11 | 5 | 12% | 49% | 35% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 16 | 63% | 10 | 6 | 1% | 19% | 50% | 27% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 | 7 | <1% | 2% | 24% | 49% | 23% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 | 8 | X | <1% | 3% | 28% | 47% | 19% | 2% | <1% | ^ |
| 7 of 16 | 44% | 7 | 9 | X | X | <1% | 4% | 31% | 46% | 17% | 2% | <1% |
| 6 of 16 | 38% | 6 | 10 | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 35% | 44% | 15% | 1% |
| 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 | 11 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 8% | 39% | 42% | 11% |
| 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 13% | 50% | 37% |
| 3 of 16 | 19% | 3 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1% | 27% | 72% |
| 2 of 16 | 13% | 2 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 7% | 93% |
| 1 of 16 | 6% | 1 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |