The Morehead St. Eagles What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Morehead St. plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 6 | 1 | 36% | 21% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 5 | 1 | 33% | 21% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Lose Next Game | 5 | 2 | 25% | 20% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | 40% | 22% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Standings | 33% | 21% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 25% | 20% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
|
Best Case Scenario Tennessee St. beats SIU Edwardsville Morehead St. beats Western Illinois Eastern Illinois beats Tenn-Martin |
Worst Case Scenario SIU Edwardsville beats Tennessee St. Western Illinois beats Morehead St. Tenn-Martin beats Eastern Illinois |
||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | ||
| 14 of 14 | 100% | 19 | 1 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 14 | 93% | 18 | 2 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 14 | 86% | 17 | 3 | 98% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 14 | 79% | 16 | 4 | 90% | 10% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 14 | 71% | 15 | 5 | 67% | 30% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 | 6 | 34% | 48% | 16% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 14 | 57% | 13 | 7 | 9% | 38% | 39% | 12% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 14 | 50% | 12 | 8 | 1% | 11% | 38% | 36% | 12% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 14 | 43% | 11 | 9 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 35% | 38% | 15% | 2% | <1% | ^ |
| 5 of 14 | 36% | 10 | 10 | X | <1% | <1% | 6% | 29% | 39% | 21% | 4% | <1% |
| 4 of 14 | 29% | 9 | 11 | X | X | X | <1% | 3% | 21% | 40% | 28% | 8% |
| 3 of 14 | 21% | 8 | 12 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 15% | 38% | 46% |
| 2 of 14 | 14% | 7 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 13% | 86% |
| 1 of 14 | 7% | 6 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 99% |
| 0 of 14 | 0% | 5 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |