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Fri Feb 21 11:45 am

Patriot League Basketball - Week 16 of 17

American What If?

The American Eagles What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how American plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

American What If?

Next Game - Boston U. (14‑14)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 12 4 76% 21% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 11 4 62% 28% 7% 2% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Lose Next Game 11 5 34% 43% 15% 6% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 76% 21% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 62% 28% 7% 2% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Worst Case Scenario 34% 43% 15% 6% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Best Case Scenario
   American beats Boston U.
 Worst Case Scenario
   Boston U. beats American
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
3 of 3 100% 14 4 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 of 3 67% 13 5 65% 35% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
1 of 3 33% 12 6 11% 62% 25% 3% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
0 of 3 0% 11 7 X 6% 30% 40% 23% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament