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Thu Nov 21 10:30 pm

Patriot League Basketball - Week 3 of 17

Army What If?

The Army Black Knights What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Army plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Army What If?

Next Game - Colgate (1‑3)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 1 0 29% 19% 13% 11% 10% 7% 6% 3% 2% 1%
Current Standings 0 0 28% 18% 13% 11% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1%
Lose Next Game 0 1 22% 18% 14% 11% 10% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 29% 19% 13% 11% 10% 7% 6% 3% 2% 1%
Current Standings 28% 18% 13% 11% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 22% 18% 14% 11% 10% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Army beats Colgate
 Worst Case Scenario
   Colgate beats Army
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 96% 4% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 78% 21% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 46% 48% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 17% 55% 26% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 3% 30% 49% 17% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% 7% 38% 42% 12% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% 1% 10% 41% 38% 9% 1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X <1% 1% 14% 43% 34% 8% <1% <1% ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X <1% 1% 17% 44% 32% 6% <1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X <1% 2% 20% 45% 28% 5% <1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X <1% 2% 24% 47% 24% 3%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X <1% 4% 31% 47% 17%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X <1% 8% 45% 47%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X 1% 21% 78%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X 5% 95%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament