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Sun Jan 12 11:45 am

SEC Basketball - Week 11 of 18

Texas A&M What If?

The Texas A&M Aggies What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Texas A&M plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Texas A&M What If?

Next Game - Kentucky (13‑3)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Next Game 3 1 9% 12% 13% 13% 12% 10% 9% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2 1 6% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 2 2 3% 6% 8% 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Best Case Scenario 8% 12% 13% 13% 12% 10% 9% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 6% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 9% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Alabama beats Ole Miss
   Texas A&M beats Kentucky
   South Carolina beats Vanderbilt
 Worst Case Scenario
   Ole Miss beats Alabama
   Kentucky beats Texas A&M
   Vanderbilt beats South Carolina
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
15 of 15 100% 17 1 99% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 16 2 92% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 15 3 72% 27% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 15 80% 14 4 39% 47% 13% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 15 73% 13 5 10% 37% 37% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 15 67% 12 6 1% 9% 29% 35% 20% 5% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 15 60% 11 7 <1% <1% 5% 18% 33% 28% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 15 53% 10 8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 23% 33% 24% 9% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 15 47% 9 9 X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 28% 32% 20% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
6 of 15 40% 8 10 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 32% 31% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1%
5 of 15 33% 7 11 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 26% 36% 22% 6% 1% <1%
4 of 15 27% 6 12 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 38% 30% 9% 1%
3 of 15 20% 5 13 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 15% 39% 35% 9%
2 of 15 13% 4 14 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 16% 47% 36%
1 of 15 7% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 27% 72%
0 of 15 0% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 6% 94%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament