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Thu Nov 21 10:30 pm

Southern Basketball - Week 3 of 17

Mercer What If?

The Mercer Bears What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Mercer plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Mercer What If?

Next Game - Chattanooga (3‑3)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
Win Next Game 1 0 3% 6% 9% 10% 11% 12% 12% 14% 12% 11%
Current Standings 0 0 3% 5% 8% 9% 11% 11% 12% 12% 14% 16%
Lose Next Game 0 1 2% 4% 7% 8% 10% 12% 12% 14% 15% 17%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
Best Case Scenario 3% 6% 9% 10% 11% 12% 12% 14% 12% 11%
Current Standings 3% 5% 8% 9% 11% 11% 12% 12% 14% 16%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 4% 7% 8% 10% 12% 12% 14% 15% 17%
Best Case Scenario
   Mercer beats Chattanooga
 Worst Case Scenario
   Chattanooga beats Mercer
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 96% 4% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 77% 23% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 45% 50% 6% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 16% 54% 29% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 3% 28% 49% 19% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% 6% 35% 45% 14% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% <1% 9% 40% 40% 10% 1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X <1% 1% 13% 43% 35% 8% <1% <1% ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X <1% 1% 17% 45% 30% 6% <1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X <1% 2% 21% 46% 27% 4% <1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X <1% 3% 27% 46% 22% 2%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X <1% 5% 34% 46% 15%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X <1% 9% 47% 44%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X 1% 24% 75%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X <1% 5% 94%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament