The Most Important Games for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Stephen F. Austin Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |||
| Stephen F. Austin (12‑3) vs Houston Christian (4‑10) |
25 | Stephen F. Austin Wins | 33% | 35% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 32% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Houston Christian Wins | 24% | 34% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| SE Louisiana (5‑10) vs McNeese (12‑3) |
5 | SE Louisiana Wins | 39% | 29% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 32% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| McNeese Wins | 31% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Northwestern St.NWestrn St (4‑11) vs Texas A&M C.C. (7‑7) |
3 | Northwestern St.NWestrn St Wins | 33% | 35% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 32% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Texas A&M C.C. Wins | 32% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Lamar (7‑7) vs Incarnate Word (8‑6) |
2 | Lamar Wins | 33% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 32% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Incarnate Word Wins | 32% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| New Orleans (5‑9) vs Nicholls St. (6‑8) |
1 | New Orleans Wins | 33% | 36% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 32% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Nicholls St. Wins | 32% | 35% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| UT-Rio Grande Valley (6‑9) vs East Texas A&M (6‑10) |
1 | UT-Rio Grande Valley Wins | 32% | 35% | 16% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 32% | 35% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| East Texas A&M Wins | 32% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||