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Tue Jan 14 7:30 am

Southland Basketball - Week 11 of 18

Texas A&M-Commerce What If?

The Texas A&M-Commerce Lions What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Texas A&M-Commerce plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Texas A&M-Commerce What If?

Next Game - New Orleans (3‑14)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3**
First Round Bye
 4**
First Round Bye
 5 6 7 8 NT
Win Next Game 1 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 91%
Current Standings 0 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 94%
Lose Next Game 0 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 96%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3**
First Round Bye
 4**
First Round Bye
 5 6 7 8 NT
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 91%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 94%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 96%
Best Case Scenario
   Texas A&M-Commerce beats New Orleans
 Worst Case Scenario
   New Orleans beats Texas A&M-Commerce
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3**
First Round Bye
 4**
First Round Bye
 5 6 7 8 NT
14 of 14 100% 14 6 12% 55% 29% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 13 7 2% 27% 45% 22% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 12 8 <1% 5% 27% 41% 22% 4% <1% <1% ^
11 of 14 79% 11 9 <1% <1% 5% 24% 40% 25% 6% <1% <1%
10 of 14 71% 10 10 X <1% <1% 3% 17% 38% 30% 10% 1%
9 of 14 64% 9 11 X X X <1% 1% 11% 32% 36% 19%
8 of 14 57% 8 12 X X X X <1% <1% 7% 27% 66%
7 of 14 50% 7 13 X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 95%
6 of 14 43% 6 14 X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
5 of 14 36% 5 15 X X X X X X X <1% >99%
4 of 14 29% 4 16 X X X X X X X X 100%
3 of 14 21% 3 17 X X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 14 14% 2 18 X X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 14 7% 1 19 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 0 20 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament