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Tue Dec 24 9:00 am

Southland Basketball - Week 8 of 18

UT-Rio Grande Valley What If?

The UT-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how UT-Rio Grande Valley plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

UT-Rio Grande Valley What If?

Next Game - New Orleans (2‑9)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
2*
First and Second
Round Byes
3**
First Round Bye
4**
First Round Bye
5 6 7 8 NT
Win Next Game 2 1 19% 17% 14% 12% 10% 8% 7% 5% 9%
Current Standings 1 1 17% 16% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 11%
Lose Next Game 1 2 12% 14% 13% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 15%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
2*
First and Second
Round Byes
3**
First Round Bye
4**
First Round Bye
5 6 7 8 NT
Best Case Scenario 19% 16% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 12%
Current Standings 17% 16% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 11%
Worst Case Scenario 17% 16% 13% 11% 10% 9% 7% 6% 11%
Best Case Scenario
   New Orleans beats McNeese
Worst Case Scenario
   McNeese beats New Orleans
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
2*
First and Second
Round Byes
3**
First Round Bye
4**
First Round Bye
5 6 7 8 NT
18 of 18 100% 19 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 18 2 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 17 3 92% 8% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 16 4 76% 23% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 15 5 47% 44% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 14 6 19% 48% 28% 5% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 13 7 4% 26% 43% 24% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 12 8 <1% 5% 25% 40% 24% 5% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 18 56% 11 9 <1% <1% 4% 22% 39% 27% 7% 1% <1%
9 of 18 50% 10 10 X <1% <1% 2% 16% 36% 32% 12% 2%
8 of 18 44% 9 11 X X X <1% 1% 10% 31% 37% 21%
7 of 18 39% 8 12 X X X X <1% 1% 7% 28% 65%
6 of 18 33% 7 13 X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 94%
5 of 18 28% 6 14 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 18 22% 5 15 X X X X X X X <1% >99%
3 of 18 17% 4 16 X X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 18 11% 3 17 X X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 18 6% 2 18 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 18 0% 1 19 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament