The Most Important Games for the South Alabama Jaguars are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Jaguars final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. South Alabama Jaguars fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
South Alabama Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10** First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| South Alabama (19‑9) vs Texas State (14‑14) |
10 | South Alabama Wins | 78% | 17% | 3% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Texas State Wins | 35% | 32% | 14% | 15% | 5% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Coastal Carolina (9‑19) vs Troy (17‑10) |
3 | Coastal Carolina Wins | 62% | 24% | 8% | 5% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Troy Wins | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Marshall (16‑12) vs Appalachian St.App.St. (17‑10) |
3 | Marshall Wins | 61% | 23% | 8% | 6% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Appalachian St.App.St. Wins | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| UL Monroe (7‑21) vs Arkansas St. (19‑9) |
3 | UL Monroe Wins | 61% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | 60% | 22% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Georgia Southern (14‑14) vs James Madison (18‑10) |
1 | Georgia Southern Wins | 79% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| James Madison Wins | 55% | 26% | 8% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Old Dominion (9‑17) vs Georgia St. (12‑16) |
0 | Old Dominion Wins | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Southern Miss (10‑19) vs LA Lafayette (10‑18) |
0 | Southern Miss Wins | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| LA Lafayette Wins | 61% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||