The Duke Blue Devils What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Duke plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 0 | 16% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 0 | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 1 | 4% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 16% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 4% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Duke beats California |
Worst Case Scenario California beats Duke |
||||||||||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | ||
| 6 of 6 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 87% | 13% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 6 | 83% | 7 | 1 | 37% | 43% | 17% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 6 | 67% | 6 | 2 | 2% | 13% | 31% | 33% | 16% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 24% | 30% | 23% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 3% | 13% | 25% | 29% | 20% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 6 | 17% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 4% | 16% | 26% | 27% | 18% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 0 of 6 | 0% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 20% | 30% | 27% | 13% | 2% |