The Memphis Tigers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Memphis plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 1 | 32% | 46% | 16% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 4 | 1 | 20% | 39% | 20% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 2 | 3% | 29% | 29% | 18% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 22% | 62% | 10% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 20% | 39% | 20% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | 5% | 20% | 34% | 18% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario Memphis beats South Florida North Texas beats UTSA |
Worst Case Scenario South Florida beats Memphis UTSA beats North Texas |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | ||
| 3 of 3 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 44% | 51% | 5% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 3 | 67% | 6 | 2 | 5% | 44% | 38% | 11% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 3 | 33% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 2% | 13% | 38% | 33% | 12% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 3 | 0% | 4 | 4 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 18% | 25% | 22% | 19% | 8% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |