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Tue Nov 19 11:15 pm

Atlantic Hockey - Week 8 of 21

Niagara What If?

The Niagara Purple Eagles What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Niagara plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Niagara What If?

Next Game - American Int'l (3‑8‑1)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 5**
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 7***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 9 10 11
Win Next Game 6 1 2 1 22 18% 21% 17% 14% 12% 9% 5% 3% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 5 1 2 1 19 16% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% <1%
Lose Next Game 5 1 2 2 19 12% 17% 16% 15% 13% 11% 8% 5% 3% 1% <1%


Current Series - American Int'l (3‑8‑1) - 2 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 5**
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 7***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 9 10 11
Niagara Sweeps 7 1 2 1 25 22% 23% 18% 14% 11% 7% 4% 2% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 5 1 2 1 19 16% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% <1%
American Int'l Sweeps 5 1 2 3 19 8% 13% 16% 15% 15% 13% 10% 6% 3% 1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 5**
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 7***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 9 10 11
Best Case Scenario 18% 21% 17% 14% 12% 9% 5% 3% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 16% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 12% 17% 16% 15% 13% 11% 8% 5% 3% 1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Niagara beats American Int'l
 Worst Case Scenario
   American Int'l beats Niagara
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 5**
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 7***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 9 10 11
17 of 17 100% 22 1 2 1 70 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 17 94% 21 1 2 2 67 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 17 88% 20 1 2 3 64 92% 8% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 17 82% 19 1 2 4 61 77% 23% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 17 76% 18 1 2 5 58 51% 44% 5% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 17 71% 17 1 2 6 55 24% 54% 20% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 17 65% 16 1 2 7 52 8% 40% 41% 11% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 17 59% 15 1 2 8 49 1% 16% 44% 32% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 17 53% 14 1 2 9 46 <1% 3% 23% 45% 26% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
8 of 17 47% 13 1 2 10 43 <1% <1% 4% 27% 44% 21% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^
7 of 17 41% 12 1 2 11 40 <1% <1% <1% 6% 31% 43% 17% 2% <1% <1% ^
6 of 17 35% 11 1 2 12 37 X <1% <1% <1% 9% 35% 41% 14% 1% <1% <1%
5 of 17 29% 10 1 2 13 34 X X <1% <1% 1% 13% 39% 36% 11% 1% <1%
4 of 17 24% 9 1 2 14 31 X X X <1% <1% 2% 18% 43% 31% 6% <1%
3 of 17 18% 8 1 2 15 28 X X X X <1% <1% 4% 25% 47% 22% 1%
2 of 17 12% 7 1 2 16 25 X X X X X <1% <1% 7% 38% 46% 9%
1 of 17 6% 6 1 2 17 22 X X X X X X <1% 1% 16% 54% 29%
0 of 17 0% 5 1 2 18 19 X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 40% 57%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament