The Most Important Games for the Penn State Nittany Lions are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Nittany Lions final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Penn State Nittany Lions fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Remaining Games Winner |
Penn State Resultant Probabilities | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |||
| Penn State (4‑5) vs Michigan (7‑2‑1) 2 Games Remaining |
6 | Penn State Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 23% | 28% | 35% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 18% | 25% | 49% | ||
| Michigan Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 16% | 26% | 53% | ||
| Minnesota (10‑2) vs Notre Dame (5‑7) 2 Games Remaining |
0 | Minnesota Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 18% | 26% | 47% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 18% | 25% | 49% | ||
| Notre Dame Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 21% | 55% | ||
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Penn State Resultant Probabilities | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |||
| Penn State (4‑5) vs Michigan (7‑2‑1) |
3 | Penn State Wins | <1% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 20% | 26% | 43% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 18% | 25% | 49% | ||
| Michigan Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 17% | 25% | 51% | ||
| Minnesota (10‑2) vs Notre Dame (5‑7) |
0 | Minnesota Wins | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 18% | 25% | 48% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 18% | 25% | 49% | ||
| Notre Dame Wins | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 16% | 22% | 53% | ||