The Most Important Games for the Cal Poly Mustangs are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Mustangs final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Cal Poly Mustangs fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Cal Poly Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |||
| Cal Poly (7‑14) vs CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild (8‑13) |
19 | Cal Poly Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 19% | 60% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 69% | ||
| CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 78% | ||
| UC Riverside (7‑14) vs Long Beach St. (8‑13) |
1 | UC Riverside Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 15% | 69% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 69% | ||
| Long Beach St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 70% | ||
| UC Davis (12‑8) vs CSU Northridge (11‑10) |
1 | UC Davis Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 14% | 69% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 69% | ||
| CSU Northridge Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 70% | ||
| UC San Diego (15‑6) vs UCSB (13‑7) |
0 | UC San Diego Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 70% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 69% | ||
| UCSB Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 70% | ||
| UC Irvine (14‑7) vs Hawai'i (15‑4) |
0 | UC Irvine Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 15% | 69% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 69% | ||
| Hawai'i Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 70% | ||